Futures:
Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,890/mt. As pressure from the US dollar index eased, LME lead drifted higher throughout the day, hitting $1,898.5/mt intraday but still failing to break above $1,900/mt. It eventually settled at $1,898/mt, up 0.69%.
Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2612 contract opened at 16,115 yuan/mt. In early trading, bulls added positions, pushing SHFE lead sharply higher as it broke above both the 20-day and 40-day moving averages to a high of 16,215 yuan/mt. In the latter half of the session, upward momentum weakened, and SHFE lead pulled back to around 16,155 yuan/mt, consolidating there before settling at 16,155 yuan/mt, up 0.59%. Open interest stood at 69,730 lots, up 2,952 lots from the previous trading day.On the macro front:
Chinese market: China's Q3 GDP rose 4.5% YoY, with the first three quarters up 4.6%, and overall economic performance remained stable. September retail sales rose 1.1% YoY, accelerating from August. Urban fixed-asset investment fell 7.2% in January-September. Real estate development investment fell 20.6% in January-September. In September, second-hand home prices in tier-1 cities saw a wider MoM increase, while new home prices continued to rise MoM; tier-2 and tier-3 cities saw narrower MoM declines.
Markets outside China: The French government launched a large-scale judicial operation to hold those involved in the weekend violence accountable, with local curfews imposed in Paris and several other cities. The US Department of Energy said it plans to convert sanctioned tankers into compliant vessels. Iran warned it could extend the blockade to the Suez Canal.
:
In the lead spot market yesterday, circulating cargoes in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai were limited, with few supplier quotes. Most suppliers mainly offered ex-works primary lead cargoes from smelters, with mainstream production-area quotations at premiums of 50-100 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price. Some suppliers had sold out their spot inventories and were pre-selling November cargoes. For secondary lead, smelters showed moderate selling interest, with mainstream production-area secondary refined lead quotations maintained at premiums of 0-50 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price. Downstream enterprises mostly made just-in-time procurement. Combined with scarce cargoes and high prices, inquiries were also limited in some regions, resulting in regional differences in spot market transactions.
Inventory: As of October 19, LME lead inventory stood at 338,125 mt, down 1,150 mt from the previous trading day. Total SHFE lead ingot warrant inventory was 31,276 mt, down 3,844 mt from the previous trading day. Total SMM lead ingot social inventory across five regions reached 44,400 mt, down 0.62 mt from October 12 and down 1,700 mt from October 15.
Lead price forecast for today:
Recently, many medium and large primary lead smelters in central China and other regions have undergone maintenance. In addition, production resumptions at secondary lead enterprises have progressed slower than expected, leading to tight regional supply of lead ingots and further declines in lead ingot inventory. Fundamentals have become a strong support for lead prices. Meanwhile, the SHFE lead 2611 and 2612 contracts maintained a backwardation structure, and lead prices are expected to continue consolidating on a strong note in the short term.
Data source statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, and are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice.
![SHFE lead breaks below two moving averages, while LME lead fails to break above $1,900 [SMM Lead Morning News]](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/qnyHQ20251217171721.jpeg)
