[ICSG: Global refined copper surplus to reach 368,000 t in 2027]

Published: Oct 20, 2026 09:10 (GMT+8)

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ICSG expects the global refined copper surplus to reach 368,000 tonnes in 2027, up from 104,000 tonnes in 2026 and about 1.3% of world consumption, with output of 29.7 million tonnes against usage of 29.3 million tonnes. Refined production growth accelerates to 3.4% from 0.4% in 2026, outpacing 2.5% demand growth on smelter and refinery ramp-ups in Indonesia, India and the EU, higher Chilean rates and more scrap (scrap-based output +4.7%, primary +3%). Mine growth for 2026 was cut to 1.3% from 1.6% on weaker Chile, China and Indonesia; Oyu Tolgoi, Batu Hijau, Malmyz and Cobre Panama stockpiled ore add supply, while Grasberg and Kamoa-Kakula stay constrained. Usage rises 1.5% in 2026 and 2.5% in 2027; China, 59% of demand, is up 2.5% this year.

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