Post-holiday secondary lead trading recovers, smelter profits improve significantly [SMM secondary refined lead weekly review]

SMM, October 16:

The market gradually returned to normal after the National Day holiday. This week, spot supply of secondary refined lead edged up WoW, with spot orders quoted at a discount of 100-0 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price, while a small volume of tight cargoes traded at a slight premium. Downstream alloy and battery producers returned to procure, releasing restocking orders, and overall transactions improved. Meanwhile, lead prices trended higher, scrap battery prices remained stable, and smelters' comprehensive profits rose MoM. As of October 16, SMM large-scale secondary lead enterprises posted a comprehensive profit of 230 yuan/mt, while small and medium-sized enterprises posted 56 yuan/mt (excluding by-product revenues from antimony, tin, etc.). Going forward, attention should be paid to the sustainability of scrap battery supply. If raw material supply remains stable, secondary lead smelters' profits are expected to stay high; however, end-use demand follow-through is relatively weak, limiting the upside for lead prices, and there is limited room for premiums to strengthen further significantly.