[SMM Steel] European HRC: CBAM Compliance Risks Disrupt Import Trade as Mills Push Q1 Forward Prices

Published: Oct 16, 2026 14:12 (GMT+8)

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[Europe] Obligations under the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) returned to the market spotlight today. Trading activity stalled as third-country suppliers struggle to obtain verified carbon emissions data—particularly for precursor raw materials like slabs and pig iron. Lacking primary documentation subjects shipments to punitive default benchmark values, sparking concerns over potential cancellations of Q1 import contracts by risk-averse buyers and traders. In pricing, the Northwest European HRC ex-works price held flat at 740 EUR/tonne EXW (831 USD/tonne), while the Italian domestic price edged up to 742 EUR/tonne EXW (833 USD/tonne). The combination of CBAM compliance challenges and tariff rate quota (TRQ) risks has severely constrained foreign steel inflows. Traders quoting Q1 and Q2 arrivals on DDP terms are offering prices above European domestic baselines at 780–800 EUR/tonne DDP. Specific offers today placed Japanese and Egyptian origins at 800 EUR/tonne DDP, Taiwanese material for March arrival at 790 EUR/tonne DDP, and Indian origin at 740–750 USD/tonne CFR. Turkish mills, despite nominal CFR price advantages, saw buying interest dampened by certification gaps and quota expiration risks. While mills remain cautious regarding broad Q1 volume allocations, selective forward pricing for 2027 delivery has already begun circulating among key accounts.

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