Spot premiums decline as delivery approaches amid widening price spread between futures contracts; spot premiums expected to rebound next week [SMM South China Copper Cathode Spot Weekly Review]

Published: Oct 15, 2026 18:11 (GMT+8)

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September 30, 2026 news:

Guangdong region: This week, premiums in the region showed a continuous downward trend, mainly because the price spread between futures contracts remained large at above 600 yuan/mt. As delivery approached, downstream demand was weak, and suppliers had to keep cutting prices to sell. As of Thursday, high-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 150 yuan/mt, down 250 yuan/mt WoW; standard-quality copper was quoted at a discount of 100 yuan/mt, down 200 yuan/mt WoW; and SX-EW copper was quoted at a discount of 160 yuan/mt, down 200 yuan/mt WoW. On Thursday, the price spread for standard-quality copper premiums between Shanghai and Guangdong was 70 yuan/mt, with Shanghai higher. The price difference was relatively small, so there was no inter-regional transfer of cargo. According to SMM statistics, as of Thursday, total inventory in Guangdong warehouses stood at 16,800 mt, down 3,200 mt WoW, with warrants totaling 4,960 mt, up 4,511 mt. Specifically: This week, warehouse arrivals were 15,800 mt/week, up 6,000 mt/week WoW, slightly above the annual average (14,000 mt/week). Arrivals of imported copper were relatively small this week, but arrivals of domestic copper were relatively large, mainly due to concentrated arrivals after the holiday. Warehouse withdrawals were 19,000 mt/week, up 12,500 mt WoW, far above the annual average (14,200 mt/week). Downstream processing enterprises gradually returned to normal production levels after the National Day holiday, which was the main reason for the increase in warehouse withdrawals.

Looking ahead to next week, supply is expected to decrease due to maintenance at nearby smelters, but downstream consumption is expected to recover as copper prices decline. Therefore, we believe inventory will continue to fall next week, and spot premiums will remain at high levels.

(The above information is based on market data collection and comprehensive assessment by the SMM research team. The information provided herein is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research decisions. Clients should make decisions prudently and should not use this as a substitute for their own independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are not related to Shanghai Metals Market.)

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM's internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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