[Platinum & Palladium Price Review and Forecast]
This week (October 8 - October 15), platinum and palladium prices showed a wild swing pattern of initially catching up on declines and rebounding, then plunging again after CPI came in above expectations. Both metals closed the week with significant losses, with palladium falling more than platinum.
At the start of the week (October 8), the first trading day after the National Day holiday, dragged down by the cumulative sharp declines in overseas platinum and palladium during the holiday, the most-traded platinum and palladium futures contracts on GFEX both opened sharply lower with a gap to catch up on declines. Palladium hit an intraday low of 268.75 yuan/g, a new low since listing. During this period, downstream enterprises actively inquired and purchased at the dip, and spot trading was active.
In the first half of mid-week, market sentiment recovered, coupled with cooling expectations for a US Fed interest rate hike in October, and platinum and palladium stopped falling and rebounded. From October 13 to October 14, the market entered a wait-and-see period ahead of the US CPI data, with overall sentiment turning cautious, and platinum and palladium consolidated lower.
At the end of the week, on the evening of October 14, the US released September CPI data, up 3.7% YoY and 0.6% MoM, both above market expectations. Core CPI rose to 2.6% YoY. Sticky inflation exceeding expectations pushed up the probability of a US Fed rate hike in October, quickly rising from about 20% before the data to around 50%. The US dollar index surged above 102.8, the 10-year Treasury yield rose again, and overseas platinum and palladium plunged overnight. On October 15, the domestic market followed the overseas market sharply lower, with the most-traded palladium contract PD2612 hitting an intraday low of 261.85 yuan/g, once again refreshing a new low since listing.
The most-traded GFEX platinum contract PT2612 hit a weekly high of 419.00 yuan/g and a low of 390.25 yuan/g, closing at 391.40 yuan/g as of October 15, down about 6.85% from the pre-holiday close, with a weekly range of about 7.37%. The most-traded palladium contract PD2612 hit a weekly high of 276.95 yuan/g and a low of 261.85 yuan/g, closing at 263.45 yuan/g as of October 15, down about 9.84% from the pre-holiday close, with a weekly range of about 5.76%.
In the spot market, after the sharp catch-up decline in futures at the start of the week, downstream enterprises' willingness to buy the dip increased significantly. End-users actively inquired and purchased, trading was notably more active than before the holiday, available spot supply from traders was tight, suppliers held prices firm, and spot prices fell less than futures. During the mid-week futures rebound, as futures prices recovered and the first post-holiday day saw large stockpiling procurement volumes, downstream sentiment cooled, with heavy wait-and-see sentiment. At the end of the week, after CPI exceeded expectations and futures plunged, spot market buying sentiment heated up again, with premiums slightly raised. Overall, post-holiday platinum and palladium spot market trading was more active than before the holiday, with spot premiums running near parity with the most-traded GFEX contracts. At the end of the week, mainstream platinum quotations were around parity to a premium of 1 yuan/g over PT2612, while mainstream palladium quotations were around a discount of 0.5 yuan/g to parity with PD2612.
In the short term, after this week's consecutive declines, platinum and palladium prices are already at relatively low levels. Coupled with mine cost crossover and downstream dip-buying restocking demand, the momentum for further sharp one-sided declines has weakened. However, the medium-term bearish logic remains unresolved: US September CPI exceeding expectations shows strong inflation stickiness, rate hike expectations before year-end remain high, data shows the cumulative probability of a rate hike by December exceeds 90%, Treasury yields and the US dollar remain high, rate-side pressure persists, and geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East remains, with oil price fluctuations potentially disrupting inflation expectations and rate hike logic again. Platinum and palladium futures are likely to enter a phase of consolidating at lows to digest these factors.
[Platinum & Palladium Weekly Data Commentary]
In terms of COMEX inventories, the divergence between platinum and palladium inventories continued, with registered platinum inventories persistently drawing down to historical lows. COMEX registered (deliverable) platinum inventory was about 116,400 oz, down sharply by about 35.4% over the past 30 days, at extremely low levels in recent years, with the deliverable buffer remaining thin. Total platinum inventory was about 313,000 oz, with registered inventory accounting for about 37.2%. For palladium, COMEX registered palladium inventory was about 196,800 oz, down slightly by 0.61% over the past 30 days, with registered inventory accounting for about 78.7%. Total inventory remained near 250,000 oz, still at high levels over the past year, with the ample supply pattern unchanged in substance.
In terms of imports, according to customs data, August 2026 imports of unwrought platinum and platinum powder were about 8.11 mt, down 2.87% MoM and up 11.55% YoY. August 2026 imports of unwrought palladium and palladium powder were about 3.35 mt, up 12.04% MoM and up 73.58% YoY. Overall, the import centers for platinum and palladium in 2026 were both significantly higher than the same periods in 2023-2025, indicating domestic platinum and palladium supply remains relatively ample. Combined with export restriction policies, domestic surplus is difficult to digest through exports.
In terms of lease rates, London platinum and palladium lease rates remained at low levels this week. The 1-month platinum lease rate stayed below 2%, while the 1-month palladium lease rate hovered around 1%, indicating ample spot market liquidity and weak borrowing demand, with the overall ample supply pattern unchanged.
[Platinum Group Compounds]
This week, chloroplatinic acid and palladium chloride both showed a retreat after rapid rise and consecutive declines. Chloroplatinic acid: after a brief rebound to 169.5 yuan/g at the start of the week, it declined for three consecutive days to 162.5 yuan/g, down 7 yuan/g cumulatively this week, a decline of about 4.1%, with a single-day drop of 4 yuan/g today, down -2.4%. Palladium chloride started the week flat at 178.0 yuan/g before weakening to 171.5 yuan/g, down 6.5 yuan/g cumulatively this week, a decline of about 3.7%, with a single-day drop of 3 yuan/g or -1.7% today. Compared with the first post-holiday day, chloroplatinic acid fell a net 2.4% and palladium chloride fell a net 3.1%, with palladium chloride declining faster and deeper.
Affected by falling raw material prices, compound enterprises showed strong purchase willingness in the spot market, mainly due to strengthening downstream demand and faster end-user shipment pace. However, overall, platinum and palladium compounds showed relatively weak elasticity in this round of platinum group compound market movements, mainly following the steady recovery of automotive catalyst and conventional chemical supporting demand, lacking strong incremental drivers, with price fluctuation ranges smaller than those of ruthenium, rhodium, and iridium products.
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