[Institutional forecast: Yangtze Memory to rank third in global NAND shipments in Q2 2026]

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to tomorrow, SMM recorded Shanghai social inventory at 70,200 mt, up 3,700 mt WoW; Jiangsu social inventory at 22,000 mt, up 2,200 mt WoW. Meanwhile, as delivery approaches, some suppliers opted to register deliverable cargoes as warrants for delivery, with SHFE registered warrants increasing by over 10,000 mt. After delivery, attention should be paid to the outflow of unmatched warrants. Demand side, after SHFE copper prices pulled back in the night session, downstream procurement improved slightly from earlier, but overall volume remained subdued, with the market still dominated by rigid demand transactions. During the day, suppliers continuously lowered quotes for the 2611 contract to facilitate deals, but low-priced cargoes traded quickly, leaving limited availability of low-priced supply in the market, which provided some support to premiums. With the 2610 contract completing delivery, spot quotes will switch to the 2611 contract as the benchmark starting tomorrow. Shanghai spot premiums are expected to remain at a relatively high level, likely consolidating around the current transaction center for the 2611 contract in the near term. Going forward, attention should be paid to the release of delivered cargoes, arrivals of imported copper, and the actual restocking intensity of downstream buyers after the pullback in copper prices.

According to data from market research firm IDC, smartphone shipments plunged 22% in Q3 due to rising memory chip costs, marking the steepest decline on record, and the situation could worsen further. IDC noted that over the past year, order demand from the artificial intelligence (AI) industry has driven up memory chip costs, severely eroding profitability across the entire handset industry and forcing producers to raise selling prices, lower product specifications, and abandon low-cost models aimed at budget-conscious consumers. IDC research director Nabila Popal said: "Current indicators show the market has not yet hit bottom. Memory chip costs have surged roughly 350% since last year and are still rising, putting enormous pressure on producers' margins and shipments. The worst is yet to come.