Most-traded SHFE aluminum contract closes midday down 1.78%, hitting a fresh stage low intraday [ADC12 Price Daily Review]

Futures: The most-traded AD2612 cast aluminum alloy futures contract opened at 22,705 yuan/mt today. In early trading, it briefly touched 22,730 yuan/mt before pulling back under resistance, then stepped down to the 22,600 yuan/mt area. Intraday, volume expanded as it dipped to 22,520 yuan/mt, marking a fresh stage low, before stabilizing and rebounding. It closed the morning at 22,640 yuan/mt, down 410 yuan/mt, or 1.78%, from yesterday's settlement price of 23,050 yuan/mt. In the afternoon, attention will focus on whether it can reclaim the 22,700 yuan/mt level and on the sustainability of the decline driven by rising open interest.

Spot: ADC12 market quotes weakened overall today. The SMM ADC12 price fell 200 yuan/mt from the previous day to 24,300 yuan/mt. Aluminum prices and futures pulled back significantly, intensifying bearish sentiment in the market, and spot prices came under pressure accordingly. In the short term, ADC12 prices remain under dual pressure from weakening costs and soft demand, with some downward pressure persisting. However, the extent to which aluminum scrap raw material prices follow the decline may be relatively limited, and cost support from tight supply of compliant raw materials constrains the downside for spot prices. Going forward, attention should be paid to aluminum price trends, changes in aluminum scrap costs, and the recovery of downstream orders.