construction steel social inventory shifted from increase to decline

On 18 September the European Commission imposed preliminary safeguard measures raising minimum import prices for grain-oriented electrical steel (GOES) and transformer cores, with permanence undecided; they expire in February 2027. EU GOES consumption rose 32% from 2021-2025, but EU mills' share fell from 66% to 43% as imports more than doubled, over half from China. Only Thyssenkrupp and Stalprodukt still produce GOES in the EU; Thyssenkrupp has cut output since December 2025. Germany's ZVEI says European producers cannot supply the needed volumes or top grades, making Japanese and Korean imports indispensable; T&D Europe warns the measures will raise transformer costs without requiring EU mills to expand output. The U.S. runs a single GOES mill; its 2018 tariffs covered finished products only from August 2025.

Egypt's steel sector is split over billet import safeguards. Under Resolution No. 121 of 2026, duties run three years: 13.12% with a 70 USD/tonne floor in year one, 12% (64 USD/tonne) in year two and 11% (59 USD/tonne) in year three. Rolling mills say the duties raise costs and want supply judged on saleable output, not capacity, plus faster roll-out of eight billet licences totalling 2.8 million tonnes. Engineering firms cite a 40% price gap with imports; local supply covers only 55-65% of demand. Integrated producers defend the duties: imports rose from 128,000 tonnes in 2021 to 1.7 million tonnes in 2024 (1 billion USD). Billet capacity is 13.6 million tonnes versus 8.8 million tonnes for rebar. Ministerial talks are due October 19.

According to SMM statistics, in the current period mill stocks and social stocks of construction steel both saw some destocking. Total construction steel inventory came in at 6.7893 million tonnes, down 255,700 tonnes period-on-period, or −3.63%, with the inventory trend shifting from accumulation to destocking.