Tight spot cargo supply & high premiums, while downstream wait-and-see sentiment intensifies; room for lead price increases is limited [SMM Lead Morning Meeting Summary]

Published: Oct 15, 2026 08:38 (GMT+8)

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Futures:

Overnight, the LME lead 3M contract opened at $1,900.0/mt, traded in the range of $1,892.5-1,908.0/mt, and closed at $1,901.5/mt, down $1.5/mt or 0.08% from the previous trading day's closing price. Trading volume was 8,179 lots, open interest was 187,000 lots, down 833 lots, and the daily candlestick recorded a small bullish candle with long upper and lower shadows.

Overnight, the SHFE lead 2611 contract opened at 16,230 yuan/mt, briefly shot up to 16,325 yuan/mt after the open before pulling back, consolidated between 16,250-16,300 yuan/mt, and the center rebounded slightly near the close, eventually closing at 16,285 yuan/mt, up 55 yuan/mt or 0.34% from the previous trading day's daytime close. Trading volume was 34,004 lots, open interest was 45,287 lots, down 2,679 lots, recording a small bullish candlestick.

Overall, the daily KDJ J value for LME lead has risen to 102, and the short-term is still in oversold territory; the SHFE lead 2610 contract is nearing delivery, the 2611 contract is in the window of most-traded contract rollover, and funds are gradually migrating to the 2612 contract.

On the macro front:

Overseas, US September CPI rose 3.7% YoY, core CPI rose 3.6%, and rose 0.3% MoM, all exceeding expectations, and expectations for an October rate hike heated up again; however, US Fed officials have successively stated that there is no need to rush to hike rates in October and there is still time to observe data, with the probability of a rate hike pulling back to about 33%, only emphasizing that if inflation remains stubborn, the possibility of further action remains. In the Middle East, US-Iran tensions continued, Houthi forces attacked merchant ships, Trump threatened further sanctions, crude oil maintained high fluctuations, and the IEA monthly report warned that global oil supply may contract sharply in 2026; the strike at BHP's Chilean copper mine is still ongoing, disturbing sentiment in the copper and nonferrous metals sector.

In China, September foreign trade data exceeded expectations, with import and export volume exceeding 5 trillion yuan for the first time, up 27.5% YoY, and a trade surplus of about 700 billion yuan, showing resilience in domestic and external demand; at end-September, M2 and aggregate financing to the real economy stock both grew 7.1% YoY. The central bank said it will conduct 700 billion yuan of outright reverse repo operations to support liquidity; Premier Li Qiang will attend the opening ceremony of the 140th Canton Fair in Guangzhou and deliver a keynote speech.

Spot fundamentals:

With SHFE lead delivery approaching, spot circulating cargoes in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai were scarce, some suppliers suspended quotations after selling out inventory, and market quotations were sparse. Ex-works cargoes from primary lead smelters were tight, with queuing for shipments in north China, and mainstream production area quotations against the SMM #1 lead average price were at premiums of 0-150 yuan/mt ex-works. In secondary lead, smelters maintained firm prices for shipments, and mainstream production area secondary refined lead quotations against the SMM #1 lead average price were at a premium of 50 yuan/mt ex-works. Meanwhile, downstream enterprises generally turned cautious, with limited inquiries and lackluster spot market transactions; in some regions, prices were quoted but no deals were made.

Inventory: As of October 14, LME lead inventory stood at 340,075 mt, down 1,750 mt from the previous trading day; total SHFE lead ingot warrant inventory was 38,026 mt, down 4,030 mt from the previous trading day.

Lead price forecast for today:

With the delivery of the SHFE lead 2610 contract approaching, spot circulating cargoes in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai are scarce, and some suppliers have suspended quotations after selling out. LME and SHFE inventories are both drawing down. After lead prices rose, combined with growing wait-and-see sentiment among downstream players and weak spot market transactions, the momentum for spot lead prices to follow gains has weakened, leaving limited room for further price and premium expansion. Spot lead prices are expected to consolidate on a strong note within a narrow range today.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM's internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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