SMM Zinc Morning Meeting Minutes, October 15
Futures: Overnight, LME zinc opened at $3,725/mt, then drifted higher, hitting a session high of $3,765.5/mt before retreating from highs. Near the close, LME zinc dipped to $3,706.5/mt and eventually settled down at $3,715.5/mt, down $1.5/mt or 0.04%. Trading volume fell to 11,184 lots, while open interest rose by 1,577 lots to 260,000 lots. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE zinc 2612 contract opened at 25,690 yuan/mt, then consolidated lower, touching a session high of 25,765 yuan/mt in early trading. Around mid-session, SHFE zinc dipped to 25,540 yuan/mt and eventually settled down at 25,580 yuan/mt, down 45 yuan/mt or 0.18%. Trading volume rose to 43,010 lots, while open interest increased by 4,222 lots to 101,000 lots.
Macro: US September CPI data beat expectations across the board; US Fed officials said rate hikes are not imminent; Trump: the bad Fed deliberately keeps rates too high; Iranian parliament speaker on strategy toward the US: to force the US to accept demands, we must fight and talk at the same time; Ukraine said Starlink service is restricted, with Musk and the US government passing the buck; Anthropic said Q3 revenue rose to $16.8 billion and turned profitable; in September, China's goods trade imports and exports exceeded 5 trillion yuan for the first time; PBoC: at end-September, M2 balance was 359.63 trillion yuan; aggregate social financing stock was 468.17 trillion yuan.
Spot market:
Shanghai: Yesterday, refined zinc buying sentiment in Shanghai was 2.08 and selling sentiment was 2.56. Yesterday, zinc prices on the futures ran at low levels. Traders in east China were strongly inclined to hold prices firm, and overall spot premiums continued to rise MoM. However, downstream enterprises had previously locked in more low-price quotes and mostly held some raw material inventory, so there was some wait-and-see sentiment yesterday.
Guangdong: Yesterday, refined zinc buying sentiment in Guangdong was 2 and selling sentiment was 2.56. Yesterday, the zinc price center rebounded slightly, and market buying activity decreased from the previous day. Some end-users had already fixed prices the day before, so buying interest yesterday morning was moderate. Guangdong spot premiums edged up.
Tianjin: Yesterday, refined zinc buying sentiment in Tianjin was 1.93 and selling sentiment was 2.29. Yesterday, futures pulled back, but downstream players still held bearish expectations. Their target price levels were low, so there was little trading. Spot availability in Tianjin was limited, mostly warrants. Traders' selling premiums edged up, and overall market trading was moderate.
Ningbo: Yesterday, zinc prices on the futures remained at low levels. Some traders in the market continued to raise their quotes, and spot premiums rose accordingly. However, some downstream players remained bearish, with more wait-and-see sentiment. Actual trading weakened MoM.
Social inventory: On October 14, LME zinc inventory increased by 5,725 mt to 144,125 mt, up 4.14%; according to SMM communication, as of October 12, China's inventory accumulated.
Zinc price forecast: Overnight, LME zinc recorded a bearish candlestick, with support from the lower Bollinger Band. The US September CPI data was strong, reigniting expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes, and the US dollar index rose again, pressuring base metals. In addition, LME zinc ingot inventory accumulated again to over 140,000 mt, bears added positions, and the LME zinc price center continued to move lower. Overnight, SHFE zinc recorded a bearish candlestick, with support from the lower Bollinger Band. The LME trend continued to drag down SHFE, and SHFE zinc extended its decline in the night session. The zinc ingot export window closed again, and zinc ingot inventory remained at a relatively high level. SHFE zinc is expected to remain in the doldrums in the short term.
Data source statement: All data other than public information are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, and are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making advice.
![SHFE zinc continued to decline in the night session, dragged down by LME trends [SMM zinc morning comment]](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/EMwoI20251217171753.jpg)
