[SMM Coking Coal and Coke Daily Brief] 20261014

[SMM Daily Review of Coking Coal and Coke]

Coking coal market:

Linfen low-sulphur coking coal was quoted at 2,250 yuan/mt.

On the coking coal front, production resumptions at Shanxi mines accelerated, and the number of suspended mines decreased. However, production at resumed mines was not high, operating rates were insufficient, and supply growth was limited. Meanwhile, coke price cuts squeezed coking enterprises' profits, forcing coking coal prices lower. Steel mills were generally loss-making and cautious in procurement. If steel demand weakens and steel mills cut production, coking coal demand will continue to be suppressed. In the short term, spot coking coal prices may consolidate on a subdued note.

Coke market:

The nationwide average price of quasi-first-grade metallurgical coke (dry quenching) was 2,200 yuan/mt.

On the supply side, coke enterprises' willingness to produce was moderate, overall operating rates were stable, and most maintained low inventory. Coking coal price cuts narrowed coke enterprises' losses, but coke price cuts pushed them back into losses, reducing their willingness to ramp up production. On the demand side, hot metal production declined, reducing steel mills' baseline coke consumption. Moreover, steel mills were generally loss-making, and their top priority was to lower raw material costs. Currently, steel mills were conservative in procurement, reluctant to stockpile proactively, and controlled the pace of incoming cargo. Overall, coke supply has not decreased significantly, but expectations for steel mill production cuts have strengthened, supporting the third round of coke price cut negotiations. In the short term, the coke market may be in the doldrums. [SMM Steel]