The most-traded SHFE tin SN2611 contract fell 3.52% overnight, breaking below 380,000 yuan, while LME tin dropped 2.71% to $51,767, pressured by both macro and AI sector sentiment [SMM Tin Morning Meeting Summary]

SMM Tin Morning Brief | Most-traded SHFE tin contract SN2611 fell 3.52% overnight, breaking below 380,000; LME tin fell 2.71% to $51,767; macro and AI sector sentiment both weighed — October 14, 2026 (Wednesday)

[Futures] The most-traded SHFE tin contract automatically rolled to SN2611 by open interest (36,676 lots, the largest). On 10/13, the daytime session settled at 396,500 yuan/mt, down 0.37% (prior settlement 397,990; open 398,020; high 400,500; low 393,670). The overnight night session tumbled to settle at 383,250 yuan/mt, down 13,970 yuan/mt (-3.52%, as of 02:30), with a night session high of 395,060 and low of 382,000. Volume reached 87,200 lots, and open interest rose by 3,907 lots, with intraday volume notably expanding. LME 3M tin settled at $51,767/mt on 10/13, down $1,442 (-2.71%).

[Inventory in Three Dimensions] ① LME tin inventory stood at 4,180 mt (10/13), down 70 mt, with the ratio of cancelled warrants at 21.65% (905 mt), remaining in an elevated range. ② SHFE tin futures warrants totaled 3,606 mt (10/13), up 180 mt, with Shanghai at 748 mt, down 68 mt, and Guangdong at 2,734 mt, up 248 mt; Guangdong continued to see inventory buildup after the holiday. ③ SMM China tin ingot social inventory stood at 8,750 mt (as of 10/9), up 117 mt WoW, a mild post-holiday inventory buildup that was smaller than pre-holiday fluctuations, with the absolute level still at a low for the year.

[Macro] Long-end US Treasury yields remained elevated: the 10-year at 5.21% and the 30-year at 5.56% (10/13, with the 30-year still at a new high since 2002). CME FedWatch showed an 81.7% probability that the US Fed will hold rates steady in October and an 18.3% probability of a 25bp hike. Brent crude oil was reported at $105.76/bbl on 10/13 (-0.75%), as attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz continued to sustain a geopolitical premium.

[Fundamentals] Mine side: Production resumptions in Myanmar's Wa State have only recovered to 40-50%, and Indonesia's export quotas remain a key focus. Alphamin in the DRC produced 5,030 mt Sn of tin concentrates in Q3 at a full cost of $20,642/mt. Peru's Minsur has entered a 60-day state of emergency in some provinces due to extreme drought. Mine-side growth remains limited for the year. Smelting side: Yunnan Tin began maintenance on 9/30 for no more than 45 days, with Yunnan's operating rate plunging 21.8 percentage points, and the combined operating rate in Yunnan + Jiangxi pulling back to 29.74%. TCs for 40% tin ore in Yunnan stood at 18,000 yuan/mt and for 60% ore at 14,000 yuan/mt, still at low levels. Demand side: The solder operating rate in September was 79.1%, and medium and long-term support from AI computing solder remains intact. However, on 10/13, US AI hardware stocks broadly fell, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index down 2.67%, and short-term sentiment dragged on the tin demand outlook.

[Spot Market] 10/13 review: The most-traded SHFE tin contract SN2611 opened lower and consolidated on a subdued note in the daytime session, then fell a further 3.52% in the night session, with both volume and open interest expanding. Oct 14 morning estimate: After the night session broke below the 380,000 level, support below is seen at the 380,000-385,000 yuan/mt zone (built on the year's low + hard constraints on the ore side + smelting maintenance + high cancellation ratio outside China), while the 390,000 yuan/mt round-number level above has turned into strong resistance; price stabilization will depend on AI sector sentiment in the night session and the direction of US Treasury yields.