Copper futures see slight correction as macro and fundamentals intertwine [SMM Copper Morning Comment]

Published: Oct 14, 2026 08:57 (GMT+8)

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SMM Oct 14: Overnight, LME copper closed down 0.45%, driven by increased bearish positions; SHFE copper closed down 0.15%, driven by reduced bullish positions. On the macro front, US Fed officials expect one more rate hike before year-end, and Waller said Trump's threat to Fed independence has not succeeded; the strike at Chile's copper mine escalated, and Trump suggested the Houthis could push up oil prices. Crude oil closed higher, while copper prices were under pressure. Copper prices are expected to maintain a narrow sideways-to-firmer trend today.

1. Overnight Futures LME copper: Opened at $14,645.5/mt, hit a high of $14,657/mt, a low of $14,549/mt, and closed at $14,555.5/mt, down 0.45%. Trading volume was 11,400 lots, and open interest was 264,000 lots, up 2,818 lots from the previous trading day, reflecting increased bearish positions. Most-traded SHFE copper 2611 contract: Opened at 110,950 yuan/mt, hit a high of 111,020 yuan/mt, a low of 110,610 yuan/mt, and closed at 110,730 yuan/mt, down 0.15%. Trading volume was 16,300 lots, and open interest was 195,000 lots, down 922 lots from the previous trading day, reflecting reduced bullish positions.

2. Macro Front US Fed officials Williams and Collins both expect one more rate hike before year-end. Waller said Trump poses a threat to Fed independence but has not succeeded so far. The labor dispute at the world's largest copper mine in Chile escalated, with over 1,000 workers potentially striking on Wednesday. Trump said the Houthis may be deliberately pushing up oil prices ahead of the midterm elections and may ask Turkey to join actions against the Houthis. Crude oil closed higher, while copper prices were under pressure.

3. Fundamentals Supply side: Overall willingness to sell remains, but the willingness to sell at low prices has clearly weakened. Sentiment to hold back from selling has increased, and supply-side pressure has marginally eased. Demand side: Downstream processing enterprises are mainly adopting a wait-and-see approach and making just-in-time procurement, with limited willingness to chase higher prices. Overall demand remains weak.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM's internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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