SMM Zinc Morning Meeting Minutes, October 14
Futures: Overnight, LME zinc opened at $3,756.5/mt. After the open, LME zinc maintained a fluctuating trend, rising intraday to touch a high of $3,769/mt, then pulled back all the way from the high, hitting a low of $3,714/mt near the end of the session, and finally closed down at $3,717/mt, down $36/mt or 0.96%. Trading volume decreased to 11,304 lots, and open interest rose by 4,651 lots to 258,000 lots. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE zinc 2611 contract opened at 25,860 yuan/mt. After the open, SHFE zinc fell all the way, touching a high of 25,950 yuan/mt at the beginning of the session and a low of 25,625 yuan/mt near the end of the session, and finally closed down at 25,645 yuan/mt, down 85 yuan/mt or 0.33%. Trading volume decreased to 47,301 lots, and open interest rose by 673 lots to 98,599 lots.
Macro: Trump: Houthi forces may be deliberately pushing up oil prices ahead of the midterm elections; may ask Turkey to step in; Saudi Aramco headquarters was hit by Houthi forces; US and Israeli leaders reportedly discussed a joint strike on Iran again; Zelensky hinted that the US suspended intelligence sharing, as Russian missiles arrived without warning; US Fed's Williams: may raise rates once more this year, and if the outlook meets expectations, no further hikes may be needed next year; the Bank of Japan is reportedly inclined not to raise rates consecutively in October; the central bank issued an administrative licensing decision to Visa, approving it to prepare for a bank card clearing institution.
Spot Market:
Shanghai: Yesterday, refined zinc purchase sentiment in Shanghai was 2.18, and sell sentiment was 2.53. Yesterday, zinc prices on the futures pulled back MoM to below 26,000 yuan/mt. Some downstream enterprises took the opportunity of lower prices to fix prices, but most others continued to expect further declines. Overall spot trades improved MoM, traders in the market continued to raise spot quotes, and premiums in east China rose MoM.
Guangdong: Yesterday, refined zinc purchase sentiment in Guangdong was 1.97, and sell sentiment was 2.54. Yesterday, the center of zinc prices shifted lower. Some downstream enterprises took advantage of low prices to replenish inventory, driving a certain improvement in spot market transactions. However, some enterprises in the market had already completed purchases at low levels earlier, and wait-and-see sentiment on further declines still persists, making it difficult for purchase willingness to be sustained.
Tianjin: Yesterday, refined zinc purchase sentiment in Tianjin was 1.81, and sell sentiment was 2.32. Yesterday, futures pulled back, but downstream enterprises still held expectations of further declines. Price-fixing levels were low with few transactions. Spot availability in Tianjin was limited, with warrants dominating. Traders kept selling premiums stable, and overall market transactions were average.
Ningbo: Yesterday, zinc prices on the futures fell MoM. Downstream enterprises fixed prices at lower levels, spot trades improved MoM, traders generally raised spot quotes, and overall premiums rose notably.
Social inventory: On October 13, LME zinc inventory increased by 5,550 mt to 138,400 mt, up 4.18%; according to SMM communication, as of October 12, domestic inventory accumulated.
Zinc price forecast: Overnight, LME zinc recorded a bearish candlestick, with the 60-day moving average above forming resistance. LME zinc ingot inventory increased by 5,550 mt to 138,400 mt, continuing the accumulation trend. Bears added positions, and the LME zinc price center continued to move lower, with short-term consolidation expected. Overnight, SHFE zinc recorded a bearish candlestick, with the 5-day moving average above forming resistance. The decline in the LME dragged down the SHFE, and SHFE zinc continued its downward trend in the night session. On the fundamentals side, spot consumption showed mediocre performance, and SHFE zinc is expected to maintain a fluctuating trend in the short term.
Data source statement: All data other than public information are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, and are for reference only, not constituting decision-making advice.
![SHFE zinc night session continued to fall, dragged by LME trends [SMM zinc morning comment]](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/cirme20251217171754.jpg)
![Downstream consumption shows mediocre performance; SHFE zinc remains in the doldrums [SMM Zinc Futures Briefing]](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/EMwoI20251217171753.jpg)
