Price spread between futures contracts widens, suppliers prefer spot copper cash transactions [SMM Secondary Copper Daily Review]

Antofagasta Minerals’ Centinela mine and the Minera Esperanza and Distrito Centinela unions are due to resume voluntary mediation at 10:00 a.m. local time on Oct. 13. The strike involves 709 workers, or about 22% of the mine’s direct workforce. The company says operations have continued and its full-year production outlook remains unchanged. Centinela’s 2026 molybdenum guidance is 3,000–3,500 tonnes of contained metal, with about 1,400 tonnes produced in H1. No molybdenum output loss or recovery-circuit impact has been disclosed; SMM is not revising its forecast pending the talks.

[SMM SHFE Copper Spot] Looking ahead to tomorrow, as delivery approaches, the SHFE copper next-month Back spread has shown signs of marginal convergence, but it remains at a relatively high level overall, and suppliers still have willingness to sell. After spot premiums pulled back rapidly to near parity during the day, some suppliers' willingness to continue selling at low prices has diminished, and sentiment to hold prices firm and hold back from selling is gradually emerging, suggesting that further downside for spot premiums may be quite limited. As of midday, open interest in the SHFE copper 2610 contract stood at approximately 20,000 lots, and SHFE warrants totaled about 9,000 mt. With delivery approaching, attention should still be paid to market fluctuation risks arising from changes in near-month open interest, warrant volumes, and the next-month spread. On the demand side, downstream processing enterprises are still mainly adopting a wait-and-see approach and making just-in-time procurement, with limited willingness to chase higher prices. Overall, if the next-month Back spread continues to converge, pressure on the spot side is expected to ease somewhat. Shanghai spot premiums are expected to stop falling and stabilize tomorrow, with a possibility of a slight rebound.