[SMM Tin Midday Review] Macro bullish and bearish drivers fluctuate, SHFE tin consolidates, spot dip-buying dominates

Midday Review of Tin Spot Market on October 13, 2026

1. Price Review

SMM #1 tin was quoted at 396,000-397,900 yuan/mt today, with an average price of 396,950 yuan/mt, down 1,700 yuan/mt from the previous trading day.

The most-traded SHFE tin contract opened lower in the morning and then consolidated higher, hitting an intraday low of 393,670 yuan/mt before closing the morning at 397,600 yuan/mt, down 390 yuan (-0.1%). Open interest stood at 33,439 lots, down 725 lots on the day.

LME 3M tin was last quoted at $52,760/mt, down $160 (-0.3%), with a weaker center.

2. Spot Market

The spot market saw relatively sluggish trading today. On the offer side, traders quoted in line with market conditions, smelters showed moderate quoting enthusiasm, and brand premiums/discounts fluctuated little. On the transaction side, the market continued its dip-buying pattern. After tin prices stabilized and rebounded, buying interest visibly cooled, with limited willingness to chase higher prices. Overall, large orders were scarce, with transactions dominated by small spot orders for rigid demand. Downstream end-users showed no clear signs of recovery. Raw material inventories were not high, and purchases were made in small lots on an as-needed basis, with orders placed only when prices were deemed suitable. After restocking, buyers returned to a wait-and-see stance.

3. Price Logic

The macro front continued to weigh on tin prices. Cleveland Fed President Hammack struck a hawkish tone, stating that interest rates need to be raised further, current policy is not restrictive enough, and inflation is returning too slowly, favoring a "small, frequent" approach to rate hikes. Market bets on one more rate hike before year-end intensified. The 10-year US Treasury yield held above 5%, and the US dollar index rose 0.37% to 102.586, approaching its highest level since April 2025. The dollar and interest rate environment pressured valuations of nonferrous metals. On the geopolitical front, an Iranian supertanker was attacked in the Strait of Hormuz, and Houthi forces struck Riyadh airport, with Middle East conflicts escalating on multiple fronts. Both WTI and Brent crude closed at two-week highs, and the transmission of energy premiums still needs to be observed. Overall, intraday price movements were primarily driven by macro pricing.

4. Comprehensive Outlook

Overall, tin prices are expected to maintain a fluctuating trend in the short term. On the upside, macro factors remain a constraint—not only due to rising expectations of another rate hike, but also attention on how long the dollar will maintain its interest rate stance. Meanwhile, demand-side elasticity remains insufficient, and resistance is evident as tin prices approach the 400,000 yuan mark. On the downside, supply-side tightness expectations and rigid dip-buying demand in the 380,000-390,000 yuan range provide support, with dip-buying still attracting purchases. This creates a pattern of "capped upside and supported downside." In the short term, the reference range for SHFE tin prices is 392,000-403,000 yuan/mt, and for LME three-month tin, the reference range is $52,300-53,800/mt.