SMM Zinc Morning Meeting Minutes, October 13
Futures: Overnight, LME zinc opened at $3,800/mt. After the open, LME zinc briefly rose to a high of $3,827/mt, then pulled back sharply and consolidated at lows. Near the end of the session, LME zinc dipped to $3,750/mt, ultimately closing down at $3,753/mt, down $48.5/mt, or 1.28%. Trading volume decreased to 12,448 lots, and open interest fell by 1,840 lots to 253,000 lots. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE zinc 2611 contract opened at 25,995 yuan/mt. After the open, SHFE zinc consolidated, reaching a high of 26,105 yuan/mt near the start of the session. Near the end of the session, SHFE zinc dipped to 25,950 yuan/mt, ultimately closing down at 25,980 yuan/mt, down 135 yuan/mt, or 0.52%. Trading volume decreased to 43,740 lots, and open interest fell by 2,196 lots to 101,000 lots.
Macro: Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Baghaei: Tehran is still reviewing the US position; Saudi Civil Aviation Authority extends the closure of Riyadh airport; foreign media: the US hopes to use a diesel agreement to "soften" Russia's stance, while Putin demands full control of Donbas; TASS: the Kremlin said it is prepared to suspend strikes on Ukraine's election day; US Fed's Hammack: further rate hikes may still be needed, but the timing is not yet determined; the National Bank of Kazakhstan plans to reduce gold holdings, lowering the share of gold reserves by about three percentage points; the 2026 Financial Street Forum Annual Conference opens on October 19.
Spot market:
Shanghai: Yesterday, refined zinc purchase willingness in Shanghai was 2.06, and selling willingness was 2.50. Futures zinc prices rose MoM to above 26,000 yuan/mt, and downstream purchase willingness weakened accordingly. Inquiries and transactions turned worse yesterday, but demand among traders remained, overall market quotes stayed firm, and overall trading was mostly among traders.
Guangdong: Yesterday, refined zinc purchase willingness in Guangdong was 1.80, and selling willingness was 2.50. Zinc price center moved higher yesterday, and downstream players became more cautious amid high prices, with purchase enthusiasm pulling back. Trader shipments became more difficult, but market quotes remained relatively firm, and spot premiums held steady.
Tianjin: Yesterday, refined zinc purchase willingness in Tianjin was 1.85, and selling willingness was 2.41. Futures rebounded, and downstream inventories were high, compounded by more pricing activity last week. Inquiries and pricing were limited yesterday, spot availability in Tianjin was low, with warrants dominating. Trader shipment premiums held steady, and overall market trading was average.
Ningbo: Few traders were offering in the market. Yesterday in early trading, traders raised their quotes, but as futures zinc prices rebounded from lows, downstream enterprises reduced inquiries and purchases. Overall spot market trading turned worse, and there was some divergence in overall market quotes.
Social inventory: On October 12, LME zinc inventory increased by 6,000 mt to 132,850 mt, up 4.73%; according to SMM communication, as of October 12, China's inventory accumulated.
Zinc price forecast: Overnight, LME zinc recorded a bearish candlestick, with the 20-day moving average above forming resistance. The US dollar index continued to strengthen, pressuring base metals. In addition, LME zinc inventory increased by 6,000 mt to 132,800 mt, reaching a new high since mid-June 2025. Bulls reduced positions, and LME zinc prices pulled back. Overnight, SHFE zinc recorded a bearish candlestick, with the 10-day moving average above forming resistance. Affected by the decline in LME prices, SHFE zinc opened lower with a gap in the night session. In addition, the export delivery window for zinc ingots closed, and China's consumption showed mediocre performance. On Monday, SMM zinc ingot inventory continued to accumulate slightly, and SHFE zinc is expected to maintain a fluctuating trend in the short term.
Data source statement: Except for public information, all other data are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, and are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making advice.
![SHFE zinc pulled back in night session, dragged by LME movement [SMM zinc morning comment]](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/eyxqF20251217171756.jpg)
