After the National Day holiday, LFP black mass prices in the lithium battery recycling sector declined significantly, and the market operating logic shifted from the earlier phase.
In the pre-holiday period, overall market transactions were relatively sluggish, with subdued trading sentiment. Some enterprises, adopting a wait-and-see stance toward the post-holiday lithium carbonate trend, were inactive in both stockpiling and selling before the holiday. They showed low acceptance of the pre-holiday pullback in lithium carbonate prices, with quotes relatively resistant to declines and limited price adjustments. At that time, LFP black mass prices were maintained mainly by support from suppliers holding back from selling, rather than demand-side boosts, leaving the market in a pattern of prices without transactions.
After the holiday, lithium carbonate prices generally continued to pull back, and LFP black mass prices came under pressure accordingly. LFP black mass pricing is essentially anchored to lithium carbonate, so the decline in lithium carbonate directly lowered the pricing benchmark for black mass, and the price support previously maintained by holding back from selling loosened as a result. At the same time, as lithium carbonate kept pulling back, market confidence in a near-term return to high prices weakened noticeably, and some enterprises shifted from a wait-and-see stance to following market trends, accelerating the pace of price adjustments accordingly.
Supply side, after the holiday, inquiries from powder-processing enterprises have increased somewhat, and the willingness to sell has eased slightly compared with the earlier period, but the overall stance remains cautious. The mindset of holding back from selling has not fundamentally reversed, the release of circulating supply in the market is limited, and actual transactions have not shown a significant increase in volume as a result. Compared with the widespread holdback and premium transaction pattern seen in August and September, sellers' sentiment is now showing marginal adjustment, and the price support previously built on holding back from selling has weakened somewhat.
Demand-side enterprises showed divergent performance. According to market communication, after the holiday some hydrometallurgical enterprises became more active in external purchases, beginning to inquire about goods and prices in the market, with procurement pace rebounding from the earlier period; other enterprises remained on the sidelines, waiting for price trends to become clearer. In terms of quotations, even enterprises actively seeking goods largely executed quotes in line with current market prices, showing low acceptance of high-premium sources and maintaining a strong willingness to lower procurement bids. Behind this attitude lies pressure on external processing profits and losses that have yet to be significantly repaired, leading hydrometallurgical enterprises to reduce acceptance of high-priced raw materials and shift their procurement price center downward. From the transaction structure perspective, current procurement remains dominated by rigid demand and long-term contracts, with new spot orders mostly inquired at market prices. The divergence between buyers and sellers on prices has not yet been bridged, constraining spot order transactions. Overall market transactions remained mediocre, with limited actual volume.
Overall, the pullback in lithium carbonate on the cost side lowered the pricing basis for black mass, while on the demand side, hydrometallurgical enterprises pushed for lower purchase prices, and on the supply side, the hold-back-from-selling sentiment marginally loosened. These factors combined to drive LFP black mass quotes and transaction prices lower in tandem. However, constrained by insufficient follow-through on the demand side, transaction volumes did not expand in step with the price decline. Looking ahead, LFP black mass prices will continue to fluctuate in line with lithium carbonate movements in the short term. With no clear improvement on the demand side and hydrometallurgical enterprises remaining cautious in procurement, there is a lack of drivers for price increases. Going forward, three areas warrant close attention: first, whether lithium carbonate can stop falling and stabilize, as this is the core variable determining the pricing basis for black mass; second, further changes in the willingness to sell among crushing enterprises, as if the hold-back sentiment continues to loosen and supply release accelerates, downward pressure on prices may intensify; and third, whether hydrometallurgical enterprises can restore processing margins on externally purchased material, as if losses persist, the push for lower purchase prices will likely continue.
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