SMM, October 12:
Intraday, the SHFE lead 2611 contract opened at 16,075 yuan/mt, drifted higher after the open, with its center steadily rising in the morning. In the afternoon, it consolidated at highs of 16,080-16,100 yuan/mt before finally closing at 16,105 yuan/mt, up 125 yuan/mt or 0.78% from the previous trading day's closing price. The full-day trading range was 16,020-16,125 yuan/mt, with volume of 58,989 lots and open interest of 57,274 lots, a decrease of 4,776 lots. The daily candlestick recorded a small bullish candle. The daily KDJ turned upward from the oversold zone, extending the oversold recovery. This rebound was driven mainly by bear profit-taking, with limited follow-through from new bulls. Meanwhile, as the 2611 contract approached contract rollover, funds gradually shifted to the 2612 contract, also contributing to the pullback in open interest. In the spot market, supply was tight and prices were elevated; downstream enterprises purchased cautiously, and trading activity was moderate. In the short term, SHFE lead is expected to extend its recovery after the sharp decline and consolidate at lows with a slightly stronger bias. With contract rollover approaching, attention may focus on the strength of position-taking in the 2612 contract after the shift, as well as the follow-through in spot transactions.
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