SMM, October 12:
On October 12, the average price of wolframite concentrates (≥65%) closed at 337,000 yuan/standard tonne (65% WO3 basis). Compared with the record high of 1,050,500 yuan/standard tonne set on March 12, the price pulled back nearly 70% over seven months, a decline of 67.92%; even compared with 453,500 yuan/standard tonne on January 5 at the start of the year, the gap remains substantial. Looking back at the tungsten market's trajectory this year, weak end-use demand has been a force that cannot be ignored behind this round of price declines. Looking ahead, multiple factors including the supply-demand pattern, cost support, and the macro environment will continue to shape the direction of tungsten prices.
Wolframite concentrates fell nearly 68% in seven months; APT and tungsten powder also saw notable pullbacks
A review of the historical price trends across the tungsten industry chain shows that, first, after the average price of wolframite concentrates (≥65%) hit its record high on March 12, despite intermittent stabilization and rebounds, the overall trend remained downward. As of October 12, the average price had pulled back from the record high of 1,050,500 yuan/standard tonne to 337,000 yuan/standard tonne, a decline of 67.92% over seven months.
Looking at APT price trends: the record-high average price of APT (domestic) set on March 12 was 1,515,000 yuan/mt, and compared with its average price of 500,000 yuan/mt on October 12, the average price fell 67% over seven months.
A review of tungsten powder price trends shows that: the record-high average price of tungsten powder (domestic) set on March 12 was 2,400 yuan/kg, and compared with its average price of 805 yuan/kg on October 12, the average price fell 66.46% over seven months.
Market outlook
At present, the tungsten market is in a mismatched pattern of "tight supply, weak demand." On the supply side, although tungsten raw material supply is generally tight, maintenance shutdowns at some smelters have led to a buildup of raw material inventory; smelting-side inventory remains high, and with relatively ample Q4 mining quotas, some enterprises have the need to reduce inventory and recover funds. These intertwined factors are collectively exerting pressure on tungsten prices.
Looking ahead, developments in the following areas warrant attention:
First, whether demand can turn around. As the tungsten price center continues to shift downward, whether the price pullback can stimulate downstream restocking willingness and drive a recovery in tungsten demand will be a key variable affecting price direction.
Second, Q4 orders for cemented carbide. Q4 has traditionally been a minor peak season for demand in the cemented carbide industry, and actual order volumes can serve as a key indicator for gauging downstream demand strength and determining when tungsten prices may stabilize.
Third, marginal changes on the export side. As tungsten prices in China pull back, the price spread between Chinese and overseas markets widens, making Chinese tungsten products more attractive on price. The market is expected to see export activity in Q4, particularly as pre-Christmas stockpiling by overseas tungsten companies could become a channel for absorbing domestic inventory.
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