SMM, October 12:
The most-traded SHFE aluminum 2611 contract closed at 23,465 yuan/mt, up 85 yuan from yesterday's settlement price, a gain of 0.36%. It opened at 23,490.00 yuan/mt during the day and fluctuated within a range of 23,435-23,675 yuan/mt. Prices are running below the MA5 (23,634.00), MA10 (23,898.50), MA30 (24,064.83), and MA60 (23,820.58) moving averages. After a sharp decline in the short term, there was a modest repair rebound, and a low-level weak consolidation structure has emerged, with the moving averages above forming key resistance pressure. The MACD indicator's DIF (-112.1425) is below the DEA (-1.1122), and the MACD green bar value is -222.0606, indicating that bearish momentum remains relatively strong.
SMM commentary: On the macro front, high US Treasury yields and a strong US dollar continue to weigh on valuations across the nonferrous metals sector. On the industrial front, the actual improvement in domestic traditional peak-season demand has not fully met prior expectations, and downstream purchasing has turned more cautious in a high-price environment, weakening price support. On Monday, aluminum ingot inventories destocked by 35,000 mt, providing some price support. Overall, bullish and bearish factors are intertwined for aluminum prices in the short term, and prices are expected to maintain a fluctuating adjustment trend in the near term.
The most-traded alumina 2701 contract closed at 2,689 yuan/mt, down 2 yuan from yesterday's settlement price, a decline of 0.07%. It opened at 2,702.00 yuan/mt during the day and fluctuated within a range of 2,682-2,711 yuan/mt. Prices are running below the MA5 (2,690.40), MA10 (2,697.90), MA30 (2,715.13), and MA60 (2,738.60) moving averages. After a short-term retreat following a rapid rise, prices closed slightly lower, and a low-level consolidation structure has emerged, with the moving averages above forming resistance pressure. The MACD indicator's DIF (-13.1860) is above the DEA (-13.6416), and the MACD red bar value is 0.9112, indicating that bearish momentum has slowed somewhat.
SMM commentary: As of now, total alumina inventories nationwide have continued to increase, and the pace of inventory buildup has accelerated somewhat. By segment: raw material inventories at aluminum smelters have increased, with downstream stockpiling willingness rising ahead of the holiday; finished product inventories at alumina refineries have continued to accumulate, and finished product pressure remains unabated amid high production levels; port inventories have edged down and basically stabilized; inventories piled up in transit and at stations have increased; warrant inventories have risen slightly. On the industry front, recent weekly alumina production nationwide has continued to rise, with the growth mainly coming from the sustained release of newly commissioned capacity in Guangxi, coupled with the full recovery of enterprises in Shanxi that were previously affected by red mud pond issues. Meanwhile, operating rates in Shandong and Henan have pulled back somewhat, and overall supply remains high, further intensifying the supply-demand loosening pattern. Futures prices are consolidating at lows on a weak note, market trading activity has declined, and both bulls and bears are turning cautious and wait-and-see. Downstream aluminum smelters are mainly purchasing as needed, with modest raw material restocking before the holiday, and no concentrated stockpiling behavior has been observed. Looking ahead, metallurgical-grade alumina operating capacity is expected to remain high, existing capacity is expected to stay stable, and weekly operating rates are expected to continue rising. No maintenance or production cut plans have been reported by enterprises so far. Coupled with the approach of winter, aluminum smelters will gradually begin stockpiling, and supply pressure is expected to continue increasing. On the inventory front, high production and downstream stockpiling are offsetting each other, and total alumina inventories nationwide are expected to continue the buildup trend after the holiday. On the price front, the supply-demand loosening pattern remains unchanged, upward momentum is weak, and spot prices are expected to remain stable with narrow-range weak fluctuations.
[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment research or decision-making advice. Clients should make decisions prudently and should not use this as a substitute for their own independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to Shanghai Metals Market.]
