[SMM survey] Blast furnace maintenance increases, and hot metal production decline is expected to widen in October

[Europe] European hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices rebounded strongly, with the Northern European market showing particularly sharp gains. Driven by tightening domestic supply, strict import quota constraints, and the rapid depletion of low-cost buyer inventories, market supply-demand dynamics shifted abruptly, pushing mainstream transaction baselines significantly higher. On pricing, the Northwest European HRC ex-works price surged in a single day to 742 EUR/tonne EXW (832 USD/tonne), while the Italian domestic price followed suit, rising to 737 EUR/tonne EXW (826 USD/tonne). Regionally, several leading mills in Northern Europe reported that their Q4 allocations are virtually sold out or officially closed, with recent delivered transaction levels solidifying in the 750–760 EUR/tonne DDP (841–852 USD/tonne) range. In Southern Europe, the mainstream delivered floor price likewise held firm at 750 EUR/tonne DDP (841 USD/tonne).

[Turkey] Domestic steel mills attempted to push offer prices higher, but underlying end-user demand remains persistently sluggish, keeping actual market trading subdued. In the flat steel segment, domestic hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices edged up by 5 USD/tonne to 625 USD/tonne EXW (excluding VAT), with mills currently allocating most of their production capacity for January delivery. However, against the backdrop of softening scrap costs and a lack of fresh order support, HRC prices face probable downward correction pressure in the coming period. On the import front, with the conclusion of China's Golden Week holiday, buyers are closely observing market signals, leaving HRC import arrivals steady at 555 USD/tonne CFR. On the export front, HRC export prices held at 610 USD/tonne FOB; although some mills quoted as high as 620–650 USD/tonne FOB, European buyers generally insist on shipment dates deferred until after the EU's quota reset on January 1st, making higher-priced transactions extremely difficult to finalize. Notably, to bypass provisional anti-dumping duties levied on certain imported HRC, several rerollers continue switching to full-hard steel coils as an alternative substrate. In long steel, Turkish domestic rebar prices extended their gradual downward trend, with mainstream transaction levels slipping to 610–615 USD/tonne EXW (excluding VAT). Regionally, offers in Izmir and Iskenderun retreated to 605–610 USD/tonne EXW; while Marmara mills maintained official quotes at 630–640 USD/tonne EXW, they broadly granted discounts of around 5 USD/tonne for bulk orders. Given soft domestic construction activity, the market broadly anticipates further downside room for rebar prices. On the export side, rebar FOB prices remained unchanged at 615 USD/tonne FOB. In long steel, Turkish domestic rebar prices extended their gradual downward drift, with mainstream transaction levels slipping to 610–615 USD/mt EXW (excluding VAT). Regionally, offers in Izmir and Iskenderun retreated to 605–610 USD/mt EXW, while Marmara mills maintained official list prices at 630–640 USD/mt EXW while offering discounts of roughly 5 USD/mt for bulk orders. Given sluggish domestic construction activity, the market broadly expects rebar prices to slide further. On exports, rebar FOB export prices held steady at 615 USD/mt FOB. Official trade data revealed that Turkish rebar exports grew 12.2% year-on-year to 2.99 million tonnes during January–August (with August alone reaching 362,070 tonnes), driven primarily by increased demand from growth markets including Yemen, Palestine, Egypt, and Peru.