Published on October 9, 2026
While headwinds remain strong in the near term, Metals Focus forecasts new record highs for gold in 2027, with silver rallying along with it.
Gold Forecast
After scaling record highs in January, gold corrected sharply and has faced headwinds ever since. A bond selloff has driven long-term yields to levels not seen since 2001.
Metals Focus analysts say these headwinds will likely continue in the near-term, with “above-target U.S. inflation and the prospect of further Fed tightening." This will be exacerbated while the U.S.-Iran conflict continues.
However, Metals Focus analysts said they do not expect a full-blown rate-hiking cycle because of the massive Debt Black Hole dominating the global economy.
“Risks to economic growth should constrain the Fed’s ability to tighten aggressively. The resulting tradeoff between inflation and growth should reinforce gold’s role as a portfolio diversifier, particularly with U.S. equities trading record levels.”
In other words, Metals Focus recognizes the Fed is caught in a Catch-22. Despite the September rate hike, its inflation-fighting ability is constrained, no matter how hawkish Warsh & Co. sound.
Metals Focus emphasized worries that ever-growing U.S. debt will continue to drive the debasement trade.
“As concerns over the sustainability of U.S. debt continue to grow, we believe the outlook for gold remains strong. Large government deficits, rising debt-servicing costs and uncertainty surrounding U.S. policy should encourage further diversification away from traditional dollar assets, particularly among institutional and official sector investors.”
Central banks have driven this debasement trade, and Metals Focus analysts expect them to continue expanding gold reserves.
“Central banks are also expected to remain substantial net buyers, providing an important floor for gold during periods of investor liquidation.”
Given these factors, Metals Focus forecasts gold investment demand will reach record highs in the next 12 months, pushing the yellow metal to “fresh all-time highs” next year. They project the annual average price will surge to $5,330, a 16 percent gain.
Silver Forecast
Metals Focus analysts are also bullish on silver for many of the same reasons. They also note that its underperformance since its January record high “has improved its value proposition.” They note the recent recovery in ETF flows and futures positioning as evidence.
However, Metals Focus analysts say physical market conditions are “considerably less supportive” than a year ago when the market was in the early stages of the first silver squeeze.
“Weak Western bar and coin demand, sharply lower Indian imports and the recovery in the London free float have eased the liquidity pressures that helped propel silver higher in late 2025 and early 2026.”
Higher prices have also dented demand. Jewelry offtake has sagged. Industrial silver users are aggressively thrifting and seeking substitution opportunities. Metals Focus said they expect industrial fabrication to “ease back.”
However, a fundamental metal shortage continues. Silver demand outstripped supply for four straight years, and even with a projected dip in industrial demand, the Silver Institute projects a fifth market deficit this year. That means silver users will have to source metal from existing above-ground stocks.
Meanwhile, the stage remains set for strong investment demand, and Metals Focus thinks this will serve as the silver market's primary driver over the next 12 months.
“We expect future gains to be driven primarily by renewed investor interest rather than physical tightness. This should see the white metal broadly track gold higher initially, before increasingly outperforming as renewed price momentum encourages investors to rebuild exposure."
