Futures consolidate at lows, spot alumina weakens slightly, alumina inventory buildup pressure accelerates [SMM Alumina Morning Comment]

10.12 Alumina Morning Comment

Futures Market: On October 12, the most-traded alumina 2701 contract in the overnight session opened at 2,702 yuan/mt, reached a high of 2,711 yuan/mt and a low of 2,694 yuan/mt, and settled at 2,696 yuan/mt, up 5 yuan/mt from the previous trading day's settlement price, a gain of 0.19%. Trading volume was 42,300 lots, open interest was 222,400 lots, and open interest increased by 3,303 lots on the day. From a technical perspective, prices traded above the MA5 (2,691.80) but remained below the MA10 (2,698.60), MA30 (2,715.37), and MA60 (2,738.72), with medium-term moving average resistance still in place. In the MACD indicator, DIF (-12.63) was above DEA (-13.53), and the MACD histogram recorded 1.80, returning to positive territory and indicating that short-term bearish momentum has weakened. During the night session, futures prices shot up to 2,711 yuan/mt before pulling back, ultimately settling below 2,700 yuan/mt, accompanied by rising open interest, suggesting an ongoing tug-of-war between longs and shorts. In the short term, attention should be paid to support near 2,690 yuan/mt and resistance in the 2,700-2,720 yuan/mt range.

Bauxite: As of October 9, 2026, the SMM imported bauxite CIF index was reported at $72.65/mt, up $0.17/mt from the previous trading day; the average price of high-grade bauxite (Shanxi) was reported at 595 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day; the average price of low-grade bauxite (Shanxi) was reported at 550 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day; the average price of high-grade bauxite (Henan) was reported at 590 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day; the average price of low-grade bauxite (Henan) was reported at 520 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day; the average price of high-grade bauxite (Guangxi) was reported at 365 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day; the average price of low-grade bauxite (Guangxi) was reported at 327.5 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day; the average price of high-grade bauxite (Guizhou) was reported at 495 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day; the average price of low-grade bauxite (Guizhou) was reported at 400 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day; the average price of Guiyang bauxite (60%/6.0) was reported at 515 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day; the SMM average CIF price of Australian low-temperature bauxite was reported at $67.5/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day; the SMM average CIF price of Australian high-temperature bauxite was reported at $60.5/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day; the SMM average FOB price of Guinean bauxite was reported at $40/dmt, unchanged from the previous trading day; the SMM average CIF price of Guinean bauxite was reported at $71.5/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day; the average CIF price of Malaysian bauxite was reported at $52/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day; the average CIF price of Malaysian washed bauxite was reported at $62.5/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day; the average CIF price of Ghanaian bauxite was reported at $78/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day; the average FOB price of Indonesian bauxite was reported at $37/mt in physical content, unchanged from the previous trading day; the CFR price of Turkish bauxite was reported at $72.5/dmt, unchanged from the previous trading day; the average FOB price of Pakistani bauxite was reported at $58.5/dmt, unchanged from the previous trading day.

Spot alumina: On Oct 9, the SMM alumina index stood at 2,668.41 yuan/mt, down 0.26 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The SMM Shandong alumina index stood at 2,670.00 yuan/mt, down 0.13 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The SMM Henan alumina index stood at 2,688.24 yuan/mt, down 0.66 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The SMM Shanxi alumina index stood at 2,690.09 yuan/mt, down 0.29 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The SMM Guizhou alumina index stood at 2,700.28 yuan/mt, down 0.34 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The SMM Guangxi alumina index stood at 2,582.02 yuan/mt, down 0.44 yuan/mt from the previous trading day.

Basis daily: According to SMM data, on Oct 9, the SMM alumina index was at a discount of 22.33 yuan/mt against the latest traded price of the most-traded contract at 11:30.

Warrant daily: On Oct 9, total registered alumina warrants stood at 225,878 mt, flat from the previous trading day. Total registered alumina warrants in Shandong stood at 3,897 mt, flat from the previous trading day. Total registered alumina warrants in Henan stood at 0 mt, flat from the previous trading day. Total registered alumina warrants in Guangxi stood at 49,599 mt, flat from the previous trading day. Total registered alumina warrants in Gansu stood at 24,868 mt, flat from the previous trading day. Total registered alumina warrants in Xinjiang stood at 147,514 mt, flat from the previous trading day.

Markets outside China: As of Oct 9, 2026, the FOB Western Australia alumina price was $373/mt, the Australia-China ocean freight rate was $36.10/mt, and the USD/CNY selling rate was 6.7147. Based on port charges of 80 yuan/mt and a 13% VAT, this price translates to approximately 3,184.09 yuan/mt at mainstream domestic ports, 515.68 yuan/mt above the SMM alumina index.

Summary: As of now, total alumina inventory in China continued to increase, with the pace of inventory buildup accelerating somewhat. By segment: raw material inventory at aluminum smelters increased somewhat, with downstream stockpiling willingness picking up before the holiday. Finished product inventories at alumina refineries continued to accumulate, with pressure on finished products persisting amid high production. Port inventory edged down and basically stabilized. In-transit and platform stockpiled inventory increased somewhat. Warrant inventory rose slightly. On the industry front, weekly alumina production in China continued to rise recently, with growth mainly coming from the sustained release of new capacity in Guangxi, coupled with the full recovery of enterprises in Shanxi previously affected by red mud pond issues. Meanwhile, operating rates in Shandong and Henan pulled back somewhat. Overall supply stayed high, further aggravating the supply-demand surplus. Futures prices consolidated on a weak note at low levels, market trading activity declined, and both long and short sides turned cautious and wait-and-see; downstream aluminum smelters mainly purchased as needed, with slight raw material restocking before the holiday, and no concentrated stockpiling was observed. Looking ahead, metallurgical-grade alumina operating capacity is expected to stay high, existing capacity is expected to remain stable, and the weekly operating rate is expected to continue rising. No maintenance or production cut plans have been learned from enterprises so far. With winter approaching, aluminum smelters will gradually start stockpiling, and supply pressure is expected to keep increasing. On the inventory side, high production and downstream stocking offset each other, and the national alumina total inventory is expected to continue the inventory buildup trend after the holiday. On the price side, the supply-demand surplus pattern remains unchanged and upward drivers are weak, so spot prices are expected to mainly fluctuate steadily within a narrow range on a weak note.

[All data other than public information are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, and are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making advice.]