Geopolitical disturbances lift copper prices, spot fundamentals constrain [SMM Copper Morning Comment]

Published: Oct 12, 2026 08:54 (GMT+8)

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SMM, October 12: Overnight, LME copper closed up 1.79%, driven by short covering; SHFE copper closed up 0.84%, also driven by short covering. On the macro front, easing Middle East tensions and mine supply disruptions supported copper prices, but uncertainties remained, including weakening US consumer confidence and rising inflation expectations. Copper prices are expected to consolidate on a strong note today.

1. Overnight Futures LME copper: Opened at $14,488.5/mt, hit a high of $14,583/mt, a low of $14,470/mt, and closed at $14,550/mt, up 1.79%. Trading volume was 17,000 lots, with open interest at 260,000 lots, down 1,582 lots from the previous trading day, reflecting short covering. Most-traded SHFE copper 2611 contract: Opened at 110,300 yuan/mt, hit a high of 110,850 yuan/mt, a low of 110,190 yuan/mt, and closed at 110,530 yuan/mt, up 0.84%. Trading volume was 21,600 lots, with open interest at 191,000 lots, down 1,190 lots from the previous trading day, reflecting short covering.

2. Macro Front Iran's Revolutionary Guard attacked an LPG vessel illegally crossing the Strait of Hormuz and expanded its tracking range, saying the US had accepted some conditions for reopening, but threatened to strike regional cables and data centers if war resumed. Israeli media reported that Israel had no intention of striking Iran again before the month-end parliamentary elections. US consumer confidence hit its lowest since May, inflation expectations heated up, and Trump launched an investigation seeking to remove Fed Governor Cook. Market sentiment eased somewhat, and combined with mine supply disruptions, this provided support for copper prices.

3. Fundamentals Supply side: Some imported copper and domestic cargoes arrived successively, increasing available supply in the market, with supply marginally loosening. Demand side: High copper prices and a wide price spread between futures contracts suppressed purchase willingness, with downstream players largely staying on the sidelines and overall demand remaining weak.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM's internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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