[SMM Coking Coal and Coke Daily Brief] 20261009

[SMM Daily Review on Coking Coal and Coke]

Coking coal market:

Linfen low-sulphur coking coal was quoted at 2,250 yuan/mt.

In the coking coal market, prices are currently under dual pressure from weak fundamentals and weak expectations, and are expected to consolidate on a subdued note in the short term. On the supply side, slow production resumptions and low inventory are lending support to prices, but with the ongoing push to ensure supply and growing expectations for production resumptions, many auction lots went unsold. On the demand side, negative feedback has intensified, and demand for coking coal has weakened.

Coke market:

The nationwide average price of quasi-first-grade metallurgical coke under coke dry quenching stood at 2,310 yuan/mt.

In terms of news, some steel mills in certain regions implemented a second round of price cuts for coke purchases, lowering wet-quenched coke by 100 yuan/mt and dry-quenched coke by 110 yuan/mt, effective from 00:00 on October 12. In terms of supply, improved margins encouraged coke producers to raise output, and coke production continued to climb. However, the shortage of premium coking coal limited the release of capacity. Although production has rebounded from low levels, it remains below the same period in previous years. Most coke producers maintained zero or low inventory and faced no immediate sales pressure. In terms of demand, the September peak season fell short of expectations, but hot metal production at steel mills remained at a relatively high level, providing rigid consumption of coke. Nevertheless, steel mills were generally loss-making and resisted high-priced raw materials, adopting a cautious approach to procurement. Coke inventory remained at a medium level, and expectations for production cuts at steel mills were rising, with some already scheduling maintenance, weakening rigid demand. Overall, in the first week after the holiday, coke supply continued to recover. Combined with increased maintenance at steel mills and easing raw material costs, coke still faces downward price pressure, and the coke market is expected to remain in the doldrums next week. [SMM Steel]