Rare earth prices consolidate on a subdued note; Pr-Nd holds steady while terbium series weakens [SMM Rare Earth Daily Review]

SMM, October 9: Rare earth market prices were overall stable with a subdued bias today. Specifically, in the oxide market, Pr-Nd oxide prices were flat, gadolinium oxide prices were flat, dysprosium oxide prices were flat, terbium oxide prices fell by 50,000 yuan/mt, holmium oxide prices were flat, and erbium oxide prices were flat.

In the metal market, Pr-Nd alloy prices were flat, gadolinium-iron alloy prices were flat, dysprosium-iron alloy prices were flat, terbium metal prices fell by 40,000 yuan/mt, holmium-iron prices were flat, and lanthanum-cerium metal prices were flat.

In markets outside China, the latest CIF prices were largely stable overall, while neodymium oxide CIF prices continued to decline: Pr-Nd oxide (CIF Rotterdam Port) and Pr-Nd alloy (CIF Rotterdam Port) were stable, and neodymium oxide CIF (Rotterdam Port) fell by $10/kg.

Currently, rare earth market prices are overall stable with a subdued bias, with Pr-Nd and terbium series diverging. Focusing on the Pr-Nd market, Pr-Nd oxide prices were flat from the previous trading day: top-tier players entered the market to purchase yesterday, supporting firm upstream offers, and factories' willingness to sell at low prices weakened, but metal producers' inquiry prices remained below factory offers, leaving both sides in a stalemate with actual transactions yet to open. Pr-Nd alloy offers held steady in tandem, with cost support still in place and processing segments showing little willingness to sell at low prices. On the transaction front, some large magnetic material producers entered the market with tender purchases, boosting inquiry activity, but acceptance of high-priced offers was limited, with actual negotiations focused on low-priced cargoes and overall procurement remaining just-in-time.

In the medium-heavy rare earth market, the terbium series was the main adjustment line today, with the decline extending from the raw material side to the processing side: terbium oxide continued to move lower with a notably wider decline, and terbium metal fell in tandem, ending a prolonged period of stability, with the two-sided linkage showing the terbium series under overall pressure; dysprosium, gadolinium, holmium, and erbium were stable across the board, with no changes in oxide or corresponding metal offers.

Overall, rare earth market prices were stable with a subdued bias today, with Pr-Nd chain offers holding steady; in medium-heavy rare earths, weakness was concentrated in the terbium series, with oxides and metals falling in tandem as the only adjusted chain of the day, while other varieties were stable across the board. On the transaction front, tender purchases by some large magnetic material producers boosted inquiries, but acceptance of high-priced metals was limited, actual procurement maintained a just-in-time pace, and a gap remained between offers and transactions.

In the short term, price direction will depend on the pace of downstream magnetic material order releases. Pr-Nd series offers are firm with cost support still in place, and large-scale tender purchases may drive gradual just-in-time procurement, but limited acceptance of high prices will constrain upside; after consecutive declines in the terbium series, attention should be paid to whether a phased downtrend forms, and if oxides and metals continue to fall in tandem, it may drag on market sentiment; dysprosium, gadolinium, holmium, and erbium lack independent drivers and will likely remain stable in the short term.