October 8, 2026
According to the World Gold Council (WGC), physically backed gold ETFs attracted US$31 billion in the third quarter of 2026—the highest quarterly inflow on record. September alone added US$10 billion, even though the gold price fell 8.5% that month. Holdings rose to a record 4,256 metric tons.
Record inflows amid falling gold prices
September presented an unusual picture: Gold ended the month at US$4,176 per ounce, down 8.5 percent from August—the steepest monthly decline of the year to date. At the same time, global gold ETFs recorded inflows of US$10 billion, or 67 metric tons, according to the World Gold Council's monthly commentary. This brought quarterly inflows to a record US$31 billion.
The fact that assets under management nevertheless declined underscores the magnitude of the price move: Assets under management in gold ETFs fell 7 percent quarter over quarter to US$574 billion. This followed a strong August, when the price rose 13 percent to US$4,563 per ounce—according to the WGC, the third-strongest monthly performance in 25 years. As of the end of September, gold was down 4.4 percent year to date, after reaching a record high of US$5,405 per ounce on January 29, 2026.
Why the futures market pushed the price lower
WGC and BMO Capital Markets agree on how to resolve the apparent contradiction between falling prices and record demand: The selling did not occur in ETFs, but in the futures market. On the Comex, managed money net positions shrank in September by the equivalent of 84 metric tons, or US$12 billion, while spread positions declined by another 156 metric tons, or US$22 billion. This liquidation significantly exceeded ETF purchases.
Macroeconomic headwinds added to the pressure. The yield on 10-year US Treasuries climbed 53 basis points to 5.3 percent in September, while the DXY dollar index gained 2 percent. According to the WGC’s attribution model, both were among the main reasons for the price decline. “Gold’s six-week decline masks a remarkable divergence between investor positioning and underlying demand,” BMO analysts Helen Amos and George Heppel wrote in a note.
Physical demand also remained stable: According to BMO, the local gold price in India traded at a premium to London for the first time since import duties were raised in May, while Chinese premiums remained intact. Central banks purchased 39 metric tons in August—70 percent more than in July and twice as much as a year earlier—led by China, Poland and Uzbekistan.
British funds emerge as the quarter’s surprise
Regionally, the picture shifted noticeably toward Europe. North American funds attracted US$4 billion in September and US$12 billion during the quarter. European products attracted US$3.6 billion in September and a record US$14 billion during the quarter—putting the region back in positive territory for a quarter for the first time since 2021 and ahead of North America. At the country level, the US remained the largest individual market, according to the WGC, closely followed by the UK.
UK funds stand out: $7.5 billion in the quarter marked their strongest three-month period ever, with inflows in 12 of the 13 weeks through September 25. In tonnage terms, inflows totaled 54 metric tons—roughly three times the 18 metric tons suggested by a model based on the historical relationship with other Western ETF flows. Since the beginning of the year, inflows into UK-listed funds have totaled $9.5 billion, narrowly overtaking Chinese products as the largest source by country.
Fiscal concerns as a possible explanation
The World Gold Council has attempted to explain the 36-metric-ton surplus over the model estimate using additional variables—political uncertainty, relative stock market performance, exchange rates, credit risk and bond yields. None of them convincingly closes the gap. One exception: Since July, the surplus inflows have moved in tandem with the UK term premium. The WGC writes that this could point to inflation uncertainty, fiscal risks or doubts about the timing of the Bank of England’s actions—but notes that the period is too short to draw reliable conclusions.
By way of background, the association points to the Office for Budget Responsibility’s July report, which describes the UK’s fiscal trajectory as unsustainable without significant consolidation. Unlike during the short-lived gilt crisis of 2022, yields are rising globally this time; term premiums and ETF inflows are also increasing in France and Germany, albeit less markedly.
What to watch in October to assess this interpretation
The WGC sees the upcoming Fed meeting as a key test. Recent US data no longer point to an imminent rate hike, and markets have also scaled back their tightening expectations for the Bank of England and the ECB. If bond yields remain high despite this slightly more dovish reassessment, the association believes it would indicate that investors are focusing less on short-term policy rates and more on fiscal risks and term premiums. For investors, the divergence itself is particularly noteworthy: ETF, jewelry and central bank demand provided support recently, while the spot price was driven by positioning in the futures market.
Source：https://goldinvest.de/en/gold-etfs-ususd31-billion-inflow-despite-price-decline
