Tin Midday Commentary, Oct 9, 2026
1. Price Review
Today, SMM #1 tin spot was quoted at 392,300-395,000 yuan/mt, with an average price of 393,650 yuan/mt, a sharp drop of 21,050 yuan/mt from the previous trading day.
The most-traded SHFE tin contract weakened in the night session yesterday, as concentrated bearish position-building drove futures sharply lower. The weakness extended into this morning's session, with the price dipping to an intraday low of 385,810 yuan/mt before staging a technical recovery at low levels. It closed the morning at 390,090 yuan/mt, down 18,610 yuan/mt or 4.55% from the previous trading day's settlement price. Intraday trading volume reached 116,000 lots, while open interest rose by 4,120 lots to 35,365 lots.
On the LME, 3M tin stopped falling and rebounded to $52,170/mt, up $675/mt or 1.31% from the previous trading day. The LME had already fallen sharply yesterday, and today it was the first to stabilize and rebound.
2. Price Logic
This round of declines resulted from the combined effect of macro pressure and capital flows. From a macro perspective, the US dollar index rose to 102.04, approaching a six-month high, directly weighing on dollar-denominated base metals valuations. US Fed officials maintained a hawkish tone but at a moderating pace—Waller said further rate hikes are still needed to bring inflation down to 2%, but there is no need to hike at consecutive meetings and the timing can be flexible; the dot plot reflects a rate hike in early 2027 followed by cuts. Musalem said rates should be raised over the next 6-9 months. Market pricing for an October hike remained low, with focus shifting to upcoming inflation data.
Meanwhile, sharply higher oil prices reinforced the "inflation-interest rate" pressure path: the hurricane approaching the Gulf of Mexico shut in about 512,000 bbl/day of crude oil capacity, and a tanker struck a mine and exploded in the southern Strait of Hormuz, with Iran threatening to block "illegal" shipping lanes and the US imposing a new round of sanctions on Iran involving 17 oil tankers. Under the dual supply-side shocks, overnight WTI rose 3.29% to $91.18/bbl, and Brent rose 3.73% to $103.94, back above the $100 mark. The energy premium elevated inflation pressure, extending expectations for how long rates will stay high and exerting countervailing pressure on base metals valuations.
In terms of futures market pace, the market had partially priced in holiday news on the first day after the holiday, but from yesterday afternoon into the night session, bears took advantage of macro pressure to build positions aggressively, pushing prices sharply lower. This morning, after dipping to around 386,000 yuan, the decline narrowed and prices staged a low-level recovery, while LME had already stopped falling and rebounded first. This suggests that the sharp drop in SHFE tin was partly a catch-up to LME losses and a concentrated release of bearish sentiment. Whether prices can stabilize going forward depends on when the newly added bearish positions exit.
3. Spot Market
After prices fell quickly into the 380,000-390,000 yuan range, some downstream enterprises began to inquire at lower prices, with purchasing willingness picking up. On the supplier side, willingness to sell at low prices was mixed: some traders actively sold at discounted quotes, while others held back from selling and held prices firm, citing tight supply.
4. Outlook
In the short term, SHFE tin is at the intersection of low-level repair after concentrated bearish selling and persistent macro pressure. The intraday low around 386,000 yuan is the key near-term battleground between bulls and bears: if this level holds after the repair, and with LME stabilizing and rebounding, prices could build a near-term base in the 390,000-400,000 yuan range. However, if the US dollar continues to strengthen or inflation data surprises to the upside again, further downside cannot be ruled out. Whether the repair rally can extend above 400,000 yuan will depend on an easing of macro sentiment.
![[SMM Analysis] Indonesia's Refined Tin Exports in August](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/pLauM20251217171751.jpg)
![LME tin plunged 5.22% to $51,447/mt, while the most-traded SHFE tin SN2610 contract fell 4.50% in the night session, breaking below the 390,000 yuan mark [SMM Tin Morning Meeting Summary]](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/cUElw20251217171752.jpg)
