Copper prices rise after the holiday, dampening downstream restocking sentiment [SMM Copper Morning Meeting Minutes]

Published: Oct 09, 2026 09:30 (GMT+8)

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SMM Morning Meeting Summary: LME copper: opened at $14,448/mt, hit a high of $14,646.5/mt, a low of $14,290/mt, and closed at $14,294.5/mt, down 1.09%. Trading volume was 24,000 lots, with open interest at 262,000 lots, an increase of 1,994 lots from the previous trading day, reflecting increased bearish positions. The most-traded SHFE copper 2611 contract: opened at 109,820 yuan/mt, hit a high of 109,920 yuan/mt, a low of 108,770 yuan/mt, and closed at 108,910 yuan/mt, down 1.22%. Trading volume was 44,000 lots, with open interest at 191,000 lots, a decrease of 3,018 lots from the previous trading day, reflecting reduced bullish positions.

SMM Copper Morning Briefing | Fri. Oct. 9, 2026

Overnight, LME copper closed down 1.09%, driven by increased bearish positions; SHFE copper closed down 1.22%, driven by reduced bullish positions. US Fed officials signaled further rate hikes, and renewed Middle East tensions stoked inflation concerns, pushing copper prices lower under pressure. Copper prices are expected to consolidate on a subdued note today.

I. Overnight Futures

LME copper:

Opened at $14,448/mt, hit a high of $14,646.5/mt, a low of $14,290/mt, and closed at $14,294.5/mt, down 1.09%. Trading volume was 24,000 lots, with open interest at 262,000 lots, up 1,994 lots from the previous trading day, reflecting increased bearish positions.

Most-traded SHFE copper 2611 contract:

Opened at 109,820 yuan/mt, hit a high of 109,920 yuan/mt, a low of 108,770 yuan/mt, and closed at 108,910 yuan/mt, down 1.22%. Trading volume was 44,000 lots, with open interest at 191,000 lots, down 3,018 lots from the previous trading day, reflecting reduced bullish positions.

II. News

(1) Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said in an interview that day that negotiations between Iran and the US are still ongoing. Iran is still evaluating the US response to the proposal to "reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days" and will reply within a few days. On October 8 local time, US President Trump said that productive talks with Iran are underway and that the US will not attack Iran before the November 3 US midterm elections.

(2) The People's Bank of China published an article stating that the RMB exchange rate, as an important price in financial markets, has long drawn attention from all sectors, with discussions increasing recently. The People's Bank of China now clarifies its policy stance on the RMB exchange rate as follows. China's trade development is rooted in the improvement of industrial international competitiveness. China has no need, nor intention, to gain a competitive trade advantage through exchange rate depreciation, and has never engaged in competitive currency devaluation.

III. Spot Market

1) Shanghai

Copper cathode selling sentiment was 2.85, up 0.4 MoM, while buying sentiment was 2.78, up 0.37 MoM.

On October 8, SMM #1 copper cathode spot prices against the SHFE copper 2610 contract were quoted at a premium of 600-820 yuan/mt, averaging a premium of 710 yuan/mt, down 265 yuan/mt from the previous trading day.

Looking ahead to today, SHFE copper futures rose sharply in early trading. End-users and downstream processing enterprises showed further reduced acceptance of current high copper prices, with new orders yet to show significant volume growth and purchases still driven mainly by rigid demand. Supply side, some smelter cargoes arrived gradually during the National Day holiday, but imported copper supply remained relatively limited, with overall supply pressure not yet pronounced. Meanwhile, on the first trading day after the holiday, some market participants had not yet fully returned to work, and enterprise resumption and procurement pace were still in the recovery stage, leaving overall market trading relatively sluggish.

2) Guangdong

Procurement sentiment was 2.62, up 1.02 from the previous trading day, while selling sentiment was 2.91, up 0.89 from the previous trading day.

On October 8, Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract:

high-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 400 yuan/mt, down 500 yuan/mt from the previous trading day;

standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 100 yuan/mt, down 500 yuan/mt from the previous trading day;

SX-EW copper was quoted at a premium of 40 yuan/mt, down 500 yuan/mt from the previous trading day.

Overall, after the holiday, a sharp increase in inventory combined with active price cuts by major sellers drove premiums significantly lower.

3) Imported copper

On October 8:

the average warrant price was $125/mt, up $6/mt from the previous trading day, with a price range of $110-140/mt;

the average B/L price was $120/mt, up $6/mt from the previous trading day, with a price range of $100-140/mt;

the average EQ copper (CIF B/L) price was $55/mt, up $2/mt from the previous trading day, with a price range of $46-64/mt.

Quotes were based on cargoes arriving in October.

On the first trading day after the holiday, the SHFE/LME price ratio for forward months remained unfavorable, but spot imports were profitable due to high domestic trade premiums. In early trading, spot supply in the imported copper market was limited, and suppliers held prices firm, especially for registered copper, where quotes were relatively high and actual transactions were scarce.

4) Secondary copper

At 11:30 on October 8, the futures closing price was 111,710 yuan/mt, up 1,340 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the average spot premium was 710 yuan/mt, down 265 yuan/mt WoW from the previous trading day.

Secondary copper raw material prices rose 400 yuan/mt WoW; the selling sentiment index rose to 2.55, and the procurement sentiment index rose to 2.03; the price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 4,604 yuan/mt, up 673 yuan/mt WoW; the price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 1,820 yuan/mt.

According to the SMM survey, on the first trading day after the holiday, secondary copper rod enterprises saw insufficient arrivals of raw material inventory during the holiday, and many actively procured during the day. As copper prices shot up after the holiday, secondary copper raw material traders showed strong willingness to sell, and trading in the secondary copper raw material market was relatively active.

IV. Inventory (September 30)

Social inventory in Shanghai stood at 49,200 mt, down 2,000 mt WoW; social inventory in Jiangsu stood at 12,700 mt, down 2,600 mt WoW.

V. Price Outlook

Macro:

US Fed officials continued to release hawkish signals. Waller said further rate hikes are still needed, but not necessarily in consecutive moves; Musalem believes another rate hike may be needed in the next six to nine months. Geopolitically, the ongoing Middle East conflict and supply disruption risks from hurricanes in the US Gulf of Mexico once pushed oil prices higher, fueling inflation concerns. Subsequently, Trump stated that the US and Iran are engaged in productive discussions and will not attack Iran before the November 3 midterm elections, prompting oil prices to pull back. The back-and-forth of macro policy expectations and geopolitical tensions kept copper prices under pressure.

Fundamentals:

Supply side, domestic and imported cargoes continued to arrive at ports and flow into the market, with spot supply gradually increasing. Demand side, as consumption gradually transitioned into the traditional off-season, downstream enterprise purchases remained primarily need-based.

Overall, copper prices are expected to consolidate on a subdued note today.

The information provided is for reference only and does not constitute direct investment research advice. Clients should make decisions prudently and not use this as a substitute for their own independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are not related to SMM.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM's internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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