Futures decline drags down spot prices; supply tightness likely to limit downside

Published: Oct 08, 2026 17:44 (GMT+8)

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Rebar futures consolidated lower today, with the most-traded contract settling at 3,061, down 1.77% from the previous trading day. In the spot market, most regional offers followed the futures lower, falling 10-20 yuan/mt, while a few markets saw slight price increases due to shortages caused by construction steel production cuts at steel mills.
Fundamentals side, supply side, the first round of coke price cuts has been implemented, lowering costs for blast furnace steel mills, but overall margins remain in loss-making territory, keeping production enthusiasm relatively limited. Some mills have shifted hot metal toward higher-margin products, leading to a slight decline in output. On the EAF side, scrap procurement difficulties persisted in some regions during the holiday, with EAF steel mills maintaining operating hours at flat and off-peak electricity levels. Demand side, construction sites gradually resumed work today, but overall purchasing interest remained subdued due to the weak futures trend, with only Hangzhou and Shanghai showing moderate shipment performance. Despite the sharp decline in futures today, spot prices in most regions fell by a relatively small margin, market sentiment remained moderate, and downside room appears relatively limited. Additionally, given insufficient production motivation at both BF and EAF steel mills, supply-side pressure is relatively small. Therefore, construction steel prices are expected to consolidate in the short term.

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