SMM, October 8 —
In September 2026, the national weighted average fully-loaded cost of alumina stood at 2,743 yuan/mt, up 12 yuan/mt month-on-month, while the weighted average cash cost was 2,570 yuan/mt. Alumina costs continued their mild upward trend during the month, mainly driven by simultaneous increases in bauxite, caustic soda, and energy costs. On the imported ore side, a slight rise in ocean freight rates further pushed up the delivered cost of bauxite; caustic soda prices also moved higher overall in September.
By cost component:
Bauxite: Ore costs rose slightly overall in September. Among imported ore, Guinea ore prices fluctuated within a limited range during the month, while Australian ore prices moved higher; combined with rising overseas freight rates, this jointly pushed up the overall cost of imported ore. Domestic ore prices continued to hold steady at elevated levels, unchanged month-on-month. Specifically, Guinea CIF assessments held steady for most of the period before edging up late in the month; Australian CIF prices rose during the month; Malaysian washed ore assessment ranges remained stable.
Caustic soda and energy: On the energy cost side, coal prices rose slightly overall, providing sustained support for alumina energy costs. In September, caustic soda procurement long-term contract prices across various regions increased by 50–100 yuan/mt, driving costs higher. Overall, October liquid caustic soda long-term contract prices remained unchanged from September, holding stable.
Overall assessment: High freight rates provide support for imported ore costs, while domestic plant inventories constrain buyers' willingness to chase prices higher. The tug-of-war between costs and procurement demand remains the main theme of the market. If high freight rates persist, spot cargoes available from Guinea decrease further, and domestic plant stockpiles continue to decline, sellers will gain stronger support for raising prices. If long-term contract shipments recover and arrivals remain stable, buyers will continue to use inventories to adjust their procurement pace, limiting upside room for prices. Caustic soda prices remain stable, but although coal output is recovering, supply remains relatively low compared with earlier periods, and costs will still edge up slightly.
It is expected that in October, the national weighted average fully-loaded cost of alumina will run in the range of 2,750–2,850 yuan/mt, while the weighted average cash cost is expected to be in the range of 2,570–2,670 yuan/mt.
