Post-holiday copper social inventory buildup, YoY level remains low [SMM weekly data]

In August 2026, Canada's total monthly sulphur exports stood at 403,009 tonnes, down 9.24% month-on-month and up 19.26% year-on-year, with an average price of USD 1,161.791 per tonne; the major export destinations included the US, Chile, Indonesia, New Caledonia, Brazil, Australia, etc. Canada's monthly total imports of sulfur amounted to 1281.999 tons, a month-on-month increase of 42.76%, a year-on-year decrease of 8.03%, with an average price of 1050 US dollars per ton, and its major import sources include the US, China, etc. ; Canada's monthly total exports of sulfuric acid stood at 151,668 tonnes, down 5.08% month-on-month and up 6.48% year-on-year, with an average price of USD 226 per tonne; the main importing country was the US, with a very small volume destined for the United Kingdom; Canada's monthly total imports of sulfuric acid reached 10,944.72 tons, a month-on-month increase of 34.68% and a year-on-year increase of 39.58%, with an average price of 255 US dollars per ton, and the major exporting countries include the US and others. For details, please refer to the SMM analysis.

[SMM Shanghai spot copper] Looking ahead to tomorrow, SHFE copper surged in early trading, with end-users and downstream processing enterprises showing further reduced acceptance of the current high copper prices. New orders have yet to show significant growth, and procurement remains primarily need-based. On the supply side, SMM recorded social inventory in Shanghai at 54,700 mt, up 5,500 mt from before the holiday; social inventory in Jiangsu stood at 22,400 mt, up 9,700 mt from before the holiday, mainly due to the gradual arrival of cargoes from some smelters during the National Day holiday. However, imported copper replenishment remained relatively limited, and overall supply pressure was not yet pronounced. Meanwhile, on the first trading day after the holiday, some market participants had not fully returned to work, with enterprise resumption and procurement pace still in the recovery stage, leaving overall market trading relatively sluggish. In addition, social inventory in Guangdong increased by 11,100 mt from before the holiday, with the regional inventory buildup being relatively significant, and the Shanghai-Guangdong spot price spread widened sharply as a result. Nevertheless, no notable cross-regional cargo transfers or arbitrage activity has been observed in the market so far, and the actual impact on Shanghai's spot supply remains limited in the short term. Overall, against the backdrop of post-holiday inventory accumulation, high copper prices suppressing downstream procurement, and market demand not yet fully recovered, Shanghai spot premiums are expected to fall under pressure tomorrow. Going forward, attention should be paid to the actual recovery of downstream orders after work resumption, changes in the Shanghai-Guangdong price spread, and cross-regional cargo flows.