Metals show mixed performance, with lithium carbonate leading the gains. SHFE copper and LME zinc post the largest increases, while palladium plunges. SHFE silver and iron ore lead the declines. [SMM Midday Commentary]

SMM, October 8:

In the metals market:

As of the midday close, base metals on the domestic market showed mixed performance. SHFE copper rose 1.27%, while SHFE aluminum fell 1.34%. SHFE lead edged up. SHFE zinc fell 0.81%. SHFE tin rose 0.78%, and SHFE nickel fell 1.84%.

In addition, the most-traded casting aluminum futures contract fell 0.51%, and the most-traded alumina contract fell 0.33%. The most-traded lithium carbonate contract rose 3.37%. The most-traded silicon metal contract fell 0.41%. The most-traded polysilicon futures contract edged down.

Ferrous metals mostly fell. Iron ore fell 1.99%, rebar fell 1.22%, and hot-rolled coil fell 0.94%. Stainless steel fell 1.53%. In coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 2.77%, and the most-traded coke contract rose 0.54%.

In overseas base metals, as of 11:41, LME metals showed mixed performance. LME copper rose 0.18%, and LME aluminum edged up 0.09%. LME lead was on par with $1,898/mt, and LME zinc fell 0.26%. LME tin fell 0.93%. LME nickel rose 0.23%.

In precious metals, as of 11:41, COMEX gold rose 0.46%, and COMEX silver rose 0.04%. In domestic precious metals: SHFE gold fell 1.02%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract fell 2.16%.

In addition, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures contract fell 2.72%, and the most-traded palladium futures contract fell 6.05%.

As of the midday close, the most-traded European shipping futures contract rose 3.72% to 2,928.5 points.

As of 11:41 on October 8, midday quotes for some futures contracts:

Spot and Fundamentals

Copper: Today, Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 400 yuan/mt, down 500 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 100 yuan/mt, down 500 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a premium of 40 yuan/mt, down 500 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 111,890 yuan/mt, up 760 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the average price of SX-EW copper was 111,680 yuan/mt, up 760 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot market: After the holiday, Guangdong inventory surged by more than 10,000 mt...

Macro Front

Domestic:

[Shanghai airports' daily average passenger throughput during National Day holiday reached 420,000, up 3.3% YoY] According to flash data from Shanghai Airport Authority, during this year's National Day holiday, Shanghai Pudong and Hongqiao airports handled a total of 17,000 flight movements, up 2.6% YoY, including 12,000 at Pudong Airport and 5,000 at Hongqiao Airport. They handled 2.94 million passenger trips, with a daily average of 420,000, up 3.3% YoY, including 1.91 million at Pudong Airport and 1.03 million at Hongqiao Airport. (Jin10 Data APP)

[National Day civil aviation flights see "volume and price rise together", with Guangzhou Baiyun Airport recording the highest flight volume]According to statistics from VariFlight civil aviation dashboard data, during the 2026 National Day holiday (10.1-10.7), domestic routes actually operated 102,900 passenger flights, up 1.7% YoY. International and regional routes actually operated 17,000 passenger flights, up 1.56% YoY. The overall trend showed "a mid-period pullback followed by a late-period rebound"; Guangzhou Baiyun Airport led in total airport volume and domestic flight volume, while Shanghai Pudong Airport led in international and regional flight volume. In terms of airports, domestic route hub performance diverged significantly. Beijing Daxing, Urumqi Tianshan, Haikou Meilan, and Chengdu Shuangliu all achieved double-digit growth; Shenzhen Bao'an, Zhengzhou Xinzheng, Kunming Changshui, and Xi'an Xianyang declined YoY. Shanghai Pudong's domestic ranking rose from sixth last year to second, while Shenzhen Bao'an fell from second to eighth. The TOP 10 airports by domestic route flight volume were Guangzhou Baiyun, Shanghai Pudong, Chengdu Tianfu, Beijing Daxing, Beijing Capital, Chongqing Jiangbei, Xi'an Xianyang, Shenzhen Bao'an, Kunming Changshui, and Hangzhou Xiaoshan. (Jin10 Data APP)

[2026 National Day holiday box office reaches 1.165 billion yuan, with domestic films accounting for 78.7%]According to statistics from the China Film Administration, the 2026 National Day holiday box office was 1.165 billion yuan, with daily box office exceeding 100 million yuan for 7 consecutive days, and 31.9959 million moviegoers; there were 3.29 million screenings, up 2.21% YoY; the average ticket price was 36.41 yuan, down 0.28 yuan from the same period last year, down 0.77% YoY; domestic films accounted for 78.7% of box office revenue. The top 5 films during the period were: "Detective of Traces" with 423 million yuan, "What Do You Mean Couple" with 244 million yuan, "Resident Evil: Outbreak Night" with 174 million yuan, "Welcome to Dragon Restaurant" with 55 million yuan, and "Peppa Pig: Perfect Holiday" with 54 million yuan. As of October 7, the total box office for the year had reached 30.746 billion yuan, with 784 million moviegoers. (CCTV News) (Jin10 Data APP)

[PBOC to conduct 1.2 trillion yuan outright reverse repo operation]To maintain ample banking system liquidity, today (8th), the People's Bank of China will conduct a 1.2 trillion yuan outright reverse repo operation through fixed-quantity, rate tender, and multi-price bidding, with a term of 3 months, totaling 89 days. (CCTV News)

[PBOC reverse repo operation achieves net injection of 591.5 billion yuan on the day]The PBOC conducted 606 billion yuan of overnight reverse repo operations and 1.2 trillion yuan of outright reverse repo operations today. With 833.5 billion yuan of overnight reverse repos, 281 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos, and 100 billion yuan of 14-day reverse repos maturing today, the day achieved a net injection of 591.5 billion yuan. (Jin10 Data APP)

US dollar:

As of 11:41, the US dollar index fell 0.03% to 102.24.

The US Fed's September meeting minutes released a hawkish signal, with most officials supporting another rate hike within the year, but the market has pushed back rate hike expectations from October to December. Goldman Sachs noted after the minutes were released that a December rate hike is more likely, but the probability that the FOMC ultimately judges no further tightening is needed is also quite substantial, adding more uncertainty to the direction of this tightening cycle. According to the minutes of the September 15-16 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting released on Wednesday, all 19 senior Fed officials unanimously supported raising the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00%, the Fed's first rate hike since July 2023. The minutes showed that "most participants judged that a further increase in the target range for the federal funds rate before the end of the year would likely be appropriate", but officials also stressed they would keep an "open attitude" toward each meeting.(Wallstreetcn)

According to CME "FedWatch": The probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in October is 80.6%, and the probability of a cumulative 25bp hike is 19.4%. The probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in December is 21.7%, the probability of a cumulative 25bp hike is 64.1%, and the probability of a cumulative 50bp hike is 14.2%.

Data:

Today will see the release of Germany's August seasonally adjusted trade balance, US initial jobless claims for the week ending October 3, and US August wholesale sales MoM, among other data. Watch for: the Fed releasing monetary policy meeting minutes; the ECB releasing September monetary policy meeting minutes; Bank of England Governor Bailey speaking; Samsung Electronics releasing preliminary Q3 results.

Crude oil:

As of 11:41, oil prices rose in both markets, with WTI up 1.56% and Brent up 1.91%.

The US-Iran conflict has entered a critical period, with military escalation expectations and negotiation deadlock fermenting simultaneously, driving oil prices sharply higher. According to , US President Trump said publicly on the 6th that military action against Iran "has to be wrapped up", and said the only outstanding question is "whether it will be wrapped up softly or hard". According to Bloomberg on October 8, The Atlantic, citing two US government officials, reported that the White House has asked the Pentagon to develop strike plans against Iranian targets, and related actions could be implemented before next month's midterm elections.This report directly shattered the market's previous widespread expectation that Trump would maintain a relatively restrained posture before the election.Oil prices rose immediately after the news broke. In addition, Tropical Storm Isaias forced the shutdown of more than a quarter of crude oil production in the Gulf of Mexico, further intensifying supply-side pressure. (Wallstreetcn)

Following last week's tanker attack in the Strait of Hormuz, which reached the highest level since the outbreak of the US-Israel war against Iran, data from analytics firm Kpler showed that on Tuesday, 7 commodity carriers passed through the strait, the lowest level since July 23. Two Kpler analysts noted in an October 6 report that crude oil volumes transported through the strait fell 27% from the previous week's wartime high to at least 10.1 million barrels per day, pulling back to September's average level, equivalent to 74% of pre-war levels, with the decline concentrated mainly in ship-to-ship (STS) transfer activities in the Gulf of Oman. However, analysts noted that exports from the Gulf of Oman coast and the Red Sea rose to a daily average of 6.7 million barrels, more than double pre-war levels, offsetting the gap caused by reduced supply through the Strait of Hormuz and keeping overall Middle East crude oil exports at pre-war levels. Data showed that the number of vessels passing through the strait on Wednesday rebounded slightly to 10, but remained far below the level of more than 20 per day on Sunday and Monday. Over the past two days, more vessels entered the Strait of Hormuz than exited. The above data excludes vessels with their Automatic Identification System (AIS) transponders turned off. (Jin10 Data)

Government representatives of International Energy Agency (IEA) member countries said at a Wednesday meeting that they support accelerating the implementation of the oil reserve release plan already announced in the March collective action and strive to complete all releases as soon as possible. Given the current tight supply in the diesel market, member countries also support prioritizing the release of diesel reserves where conditions permit. To date, IEA member countries have released approximately 325 million barrels of oil under the March collective action, with some countries actually releasing more than previously committed. The IEA made clear that if all oil reserves already committed but not yet released under the March action were fully released, approximately 100 million barrels more are expected to enter the market. This means that the roughly 100 million barrel release scale recently in market focus mainly represents accelerated execution of reserve release commitments already made in March, rather than a new 100 million barrel emergency release plan. Currently, IEA member countries still hold substantial government-controlled emergency oil reserves totaling approximately 1.1 billion barrels, including more than 200 million barrels of diesel. The IEA said it is prepared to further release these reserves to the market if market conditions require. (Jin10 Data)

Spot market overview:

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