Post-holiday inventory buildup limited; market mostly wait-and-see [SMM South China Spot Aluminum Daily Review]

[SMM Aluminum Express News] Norsk Hydro expects up to US$110 million Q4 cost impact from gas supply disruptions at Brazil's Alunorte alumina refinery. Norsk Hydro announced on October 5 that its 6.3 million mt/year Alunorte refinery continues to purchase natural gas at spot-market prices following disruptions to contracted deliveries from supplier CELBA in August. The company estimates a US$90–110 million cost impact in Q4 2026, following an estimated US$75–100 million impact in Q3 from higher gas costs and reduced alumina production. Alunorte temporarily reduced production to 50% in August, resulting in an estimated 100,000–120,000 mt of lost alumina output, before beginning to ramp up following a temporary gas terminal access agreement. Hydro does not currently expect further gas supply interruptions, although a long-term solution remains unresolved. The disruption therefore presents a continuing production-cost risk rather than a confirmed new reduction in alumina output, with potential implications for global alumina supply if gas availability deteriorates again.

[SMM Aluminum Express News] Novelis produces first aluminum coil at US$5 billion Alabama rolling and recycling plant. Novelis, a subsidiary of Hindalco Industries, announced on October 7 that it had produced its first coil on the cold mill at its new aluminum rolling and recycling facility in Bay Minette, Alabama, marking a major commissioning milestone. The facility, the first fully integrated aluminum recycling and rolling plant built in the US in over 40 years, will have 600,000 mt/year of rolled aluminum capacity once fully operational, supplying the beverage packaging, automotive and specialty products sectors.

According to Beibu Gulf Port Co., Ltd. on October 7, a vessel carrying 168,000 mt of Guinean imported bauxite successfully berthed at Fangchenggang on October 1, efficiently completing the entire chain of berthing, unloading, stockpiling, and railway distribution. The first batch of cargo was shipped by rail to Wanzhou, Chongqing on October 3, strongly ensuring a stable supply of raw materials for Bosai Minerals' Wanzhou production site. The successful launch of this new Guinean bauxite logistics route has innovatively established a new rail-sea intermodal model of "overseas mines – entry via Beibu Gulf Port – direct rail to Chongqing." Compared with the traditional Yangtze River river-sea intermodal route, the overall transportation time has been shortened by approximately 25 days.