[SMM Silicon-Based PV Morning Meeting Summary] Film Price Hikes Materialize, Module Glass Inventory Buildup During Holiday Awaits Reduction

SMM, October 8:

Solar Cell

Prices:On the first trading day after the holiday, solar cell prices held at pre-holiday levels, remaining broadly stable. The 210R transaction center held above 0.31 yuan/W, with the price range at 0.305-0.314 yuan/W; the 183 price range was 0.293-0.301 yuan/W, with the low end slightly softer than before the holiday; the 210N price range was 0.290-0.296 yuan/W, supported by order growth from centralized module tenders. During the holiday, market trading was sluggish and quotes were flat. After the holiday, upstream and downstream negotiations remain in a standoff, and prices are expected to stay stable in the short term. Going forward, the key focus will be on the pace of post-holiday demand recovery.

Production:Solar cell production in October is expected to continue contracting, mainly because some producers have already begun technological transformation of their cell lines, limiting near-term capacity release. The pattern of further production cuts in October versus September is largely established, but actual output still needs to be confirmed against the progress of each producer's technological transformation. If transformation advances faster than expected, the supply contraction could deepen further.

Inventory:Solar cell inventory changed little from pre-holiday levels. Some solar cell manufacturers indicated that orders are booked through mid-October, and cell inventory is in a tight state. This round of destocking was mainly driven by the release of centralized module tenders, which significantly boosted demand for 210N cells. Going forward, attention should be paid to the sustainability of tender orders and whether 183 and 210R can be lifted by demand spillover.

Module

Prices:The market was relatively stable during the holiday, with domestic purchasing demand largely paused. After the holiday, centralized procurement is expected to restart, and project deliveries continue to advance. Outside China, with the end of the European summer break, purchasing is also expected to recover, and China's export orders are expected to begin increasing in October. Currently, distributed Topcon 183, 210R, and 210N high-efficiency modules are quoted at 0.7085 yuan/W, 0.7185 yuan/W, and 0.724 yuan/W, respectively, while centralized Topcon 182/183, 210N, and 210R modules are quoted at 0.698 yuan/W, 0.709 yuan/W, and 0.704 yuan/W, respectively.

Production:Domestic supply changed little this week. During the National Day holiday, some small module producers suspended production for the holiday, while most top-tier producers maintained normal production. In October, domestic operating rates are expected to rise from September by about 1-2 GW, mainly driven by export orders and rising centralized demand in China.

Inventory:This week, domestic module inventory began to rise due to the impact of logistics and transportation during the holiday, with the inventory buildup at about 2 GW. However, after the holiday, once transportation restarts, inventory is still expected to continue destocking.

PV film

prices:

PV-grade EVA: mainstream spot transactions for domestic PV-grade EVA resin held at 11,000-11,200 yuan/mt, with spot prices remaining stable over the holiday. Crude oil prices have recently pulled back, narrowing the room for further cost-side gains. The pace of EVA resin price increases is expected to slow gradually, with market movements increasingly driven by the supply-demand pattern for resin and spot transaction conditions.

PV film: current prices are 5.8-5.84 yuan/m² for 420g transparent EVA film and 5.62-5.66 yuan/m² for 380g EPE film. The new round of monthly film price negotiations has concluded and been fully implemented. Driven by higher upstream EVA resin prices, improving month-end orders, and bullish market expectations, this round of monthly film pricing moved higher, while spot order prices have seen little fluctuation recently. Going forward, focus on the settlement of post-holiday EVA resin prices and the pace of downstream module order follow-through.

Production: PV-grade EVA production remains generally stable; film production schedules for October are expected to edge down MoM from September.

Inventories: petrochemical plant inventories are currently at low levels, while film producers' inventories remain within a reasonable range.

PV glass

prices:

3.2mm single-layer coating: 3.2mm single-layer coated PV glass is quoted at 15.8-16.8 yuan/m², with prices stable.

3.2mm double-layer coating: 3.2mm double-layer coated PV glass is quoted at 16.8-17.8 yuan/m², with prices stable.

2.0mm single-layer coating: 2.0mm single-layer coated PV glass is quoted at 10-10.5 yuan/m². October price negotiations are expected to resume after the holiday. For some enterprises that previously settled on a retroactive basis, October pricing was largely maintained at 10.5 yuan/m², but overall low-end transaction prices in the market have risen from the same period in September, and there are currently no domestic orders below 10 yuan/m².

 2.0mm double-layer coating: 2.0mm double-layer coated PV glass is quoted at 11-11.5 yuan/m², with prices stable.

Production: In October, with more production days, industry supply has increased, but due to the impact of cold repairs in September, actual production rose by only about 30,000 mt, a limited extent.

Inventories: domestic glass inventories rose. As glass production operated normally during the holiday but module purchases were suspended, and higher logistics costs led most enterprises to delay shipments until after the holiday, days of inventories increased at a relatively rapid pace.