Inflation expectations heat up and US Fed policy diverges, copper prices consolidate at highs [SMM Copper Morning Comment]

Published: Oct 08, 2026 09:15 (GMT+8)

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SMM, October 8: Overnight, LME copper closed up 0.29%, driven by increased long positions, while SHFE copper was closed for the National Day holiday. On the macro front, expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes and rising US inflation expectations pushed the US dollar higher, putting copper prices under pressure. Copper prices are expected to continue to consolidate at highs and move sideways today.

1. Overnight Futures

LME copper:
Opened at $14,428/mt, hit a high of $14,491.5/mt, a low of $14,332/mt, and closed at $14,451.5/mt, up 0.29%. Trading volume was 13,000 lots, and open interest was 260,000 lots, up 542 lots from the previous trading day, with increased long positions.

SHFE copper:
Closed for the National Day holiday.

2. Macro Front
The minutes of the US Fed's September meeting showed that officials were divided on the necessity of rate hikes, but most expected one more hike within the year. Meanwhile, the New York Fed's one-year inflation expectations rose to 3.9%, the highest in more than three years, pushing the US dollar index to 102.5 at one point and exerting some pressure on copper prices. Geopolitically, US-Iran nuclear talks remain deadlocked, with uranium enrichment rights being the main obstacle, and uncertainty in the Middle East persists.

3. Fundamentals
Supply side, domestic and imported cargoes continued to arrive at ports and enter the market, with spot supply gradually increasing.
Demand side, as consumption gradually entered the traditional off-season, downstream enterprises maintained need-based purchasing.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM's internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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