[SMM Steel] EU HRC Prices Diverge as Northern Market Firms

[India Export] India’s HRC export prices for Europe stood at 680USD/tonne FOB India, corresponding to a seller target of 760USD/tonne CFR Europe. European production disruptions supported firmer asking prices despite subdued buying, while fresh transactions at the higher levels remained unconfirmed. For Vietnam, the indication for India-origin SAE1006 HRC reference stood at 575USD/tonne CFR, with no active Indian mill offer confirmed at that level amid firmer prices in Europe and the domestic market. Domestically, the Mumbai HRC reference held at 656USD/tonne (63,000INR/tonne) EXW, excluding 18% GST. Europe remained the focus of higher Indian export targets, while participation in Vietnam stayed limited. Buyer acceptance of the European targets remains the key test for translating stronger seller expectations into fresh export bookings.

[India Domestic] India’s domestic steel market sentiment remained mildly positive with Power cuts in Punjab and Raipur are disrupting furnace and rolling mill operations, leading to lower steel output and tighter supply. This may provide support to billet and rebar prices in the near term, while prolonged power shortages could put further upward pressure on prices. Oct 7, prices were mostly stable, while Raipur rebar, sponge iron increased slightly showing some upward pressure on prices. Mandi HMS 1&2 (80:20) unchanged at 410 USD/tonne (39,700 INR/tonne) delivered Mandi. Mumbai Rebar unchanged at 555 USD/tonne (53,700 INR/tonne) EXW Mumbai. While, Raipur rebar increased 8 USD/tonne (800 INR/tonne) to 547 USD/tonne (53,000 INR/tonne) EXW Raipur. Sponge iron PDRI rose 2 USD/tonne (200 INR/tonne) to rose 310 USD/tonne (30,000 INR/tonne) EXW Raipur. Mandi ingot flat at 503 USD/tonne (48,700 INR/tonne) EXW Mandi. Durgapur Billet up 1 USD/tonne (100 INR/tonne) to 467 USD/tonne (45,200 INR/tonne) delivered Durgapur.

India’s steel ministry is unlikely to introduce new measures to curb cheap steel imports in the near term, despite requests from domestic steelmakers to raise import protection, according to a government source. India imported around 3.5 million tonnes of finished steel during April-August, up 29.5% year on year, with China accounting for 31.8% of total imports. A petition has reportedly sought an increase in the safeguard duty from the current 11.5% to above 20%, but the government is not considering a hike at present as domestic steel prices are already high. India had introduced safeguard duties on some steel products in December 2025 and also started an anti-dumping investigation into hot-rolled steel imports from China, Japan and Russia in June. Meanwhile, domestic steel prices have increased in recent weeks due to higher coking coal costs and stronger demand after the monsoon, with infrastructure and automotive demand showing improvement. Higher imports remain a key risk to domestic mills’ margins if import competition strengthens further.