[SMM Steel] Turkish Rebar Slides: Trader Discounts Force Mill Cuts as Black Sea Risks Escalate

[Vietnam] A major Vietnamese steelmaker raised domestic HRC prices by around USD 9/tonne for December and January deliveries. After discounts for orders of 20,000 tonnes or more, offers were equivalent to around USD 543/tonne CIF southern Vietnam. Persistently high coking coal costs are keeping production costs elevated, while improving domestic steel demand and tighter HRC supply from India are providing additional support.

[Europe] Weighed down by persistently slow and subdued trading activity, European hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices faced broad downward pressure. Currently, buyers are heavily focused on assessing the customs clearance backlog for Q4 import arrivals and calculating the potential impact of proportional safeguard duties on Turkish material. In terms of pricing, Northwest European HRC ex-works prices edged down to 728 EUR/tonne EXW (~818 USD/tonne), while the Italian domestic price slipped to 736 EUR/tonne EXW (~826 USD/tonne). According to SMM research, inventory destocking has progressed slower than anticipated; however, tightening supply alongside finalized duty implementations is expected to lend upward support to prices. On the domestic supply side, market attention remains zeroed in on Acciaierie d'Italia (ADI) after the Milan Court of Appeal rejected the mill's second bid to suspend a court order mandating the shutdown of its hot-end blast furnaces, sparking widespread concern over its operational outlook. In the import segment, offers for Indian HRC to Italy were heard slightly above Turkish material at around 710 USD/tonne CIF Italy. Turkish cargoes are anticipated to face an effective duty of roughly 15%, prompting some buyers to consider holding material in bonded storage until the next quota reset before clearing customs. Overall, buying interest in fresh import bookings remains heavily constrained.

[Indonesia] Slab prices remain at USD 490/tonne FOB today. Some Indonesian mills have raised their HRC prices in response to local market conditions and slab prices, but the impact on the market has been minimal and unlikely to be followed. External factors have shown no change so far, which leaves demand as the main factor that could move prices. China is still on holiday, and demand usually picks up only after Chinese mills announce their new prices, so no updates are expected until the holiday ends.