[OECD forecasts global steel overcapacity to reach 721 million tonnes by 2027, hindering decarbonisation]

Nucor (NYSE:NUE) issued quarterly guidance pointing to stronger earnings alongside rising product costs, as firmer steel prices met higher input costs. Steel mills and steel products improved while raw materials softened, underscoring the differing pace across three arms that turn recycled scrap into steel via electric-arc furnaces nationwide. Scrap, energy and alloying costs feed cash costs directly, trimming part of the gain from firmer selling prices. Cooler inflation eased expectations of further rate hikes and the S&P 500 edged higher in early October, though trade measures on imported steel remain unsettled. The stock traded at 235.98 USD, up 2.23 USD, or 0.954%. Nucor keeps expanding and upgrading mills to lift capacity; results later this month will test pricing and costs.

India's Essar Group, via US unit Mesabi Metallics, plans to invest 15 billion USD in an Iowa integrated steel plant, targeting first output in 2030. The project was announced at the White House on 28 September by President Donald Trump together with Essar co-founder Ravi Ruia and Mesabi Metallics chairman Rewant Ruia. Phase one is designed for 7.5 million tonnes a year, rising to about 10 million tonnes at full build-out. Upstream supply comes from Mesabi Metallics' new mine at Nashwauk, Minnesota, on which Essar has spent over 2.5 billion USD; it should yield roughly 7.5 million tonnes of iron ore annually and some 350 jobs, the first new US iron ore mine in 50 years. The US Export-Import Bank announced up to 10 billion USD in financing for the mine expansion in September. The plant should create at least 1,750 permanent jobs, plus 6,000 construction jobs, with the White House estimating 95 billion USD of economic impact from phase one.

[Europe] Amid weaker-than-expected demand and downstream sectors facing severe cost pressures, European mills saw little success in pushing cost-driven price increases. Italian rebar ex-works prices rose by 5 EUR/tonne to 725 EUR/tonne EXW (~817 USD/tonne). Notably, while one major Italian producer raised its domestic offer to 760–765 EUR/tonne EXW (~856–862 USD/tonne), other mills remained willing to conclude at 710–720 EUR/tonne EXW (~800–811 USD/tonne), though they are expected to announce aggressive October hikes to 760–770 EUR/tonne EXW (~856–867 USD/tonne) in the coming days. Rising project costs across Europe have delayed construction timelines and weakened buyer sentiment; although mills attempted to discount, soft demand and elevated road freight rates have severely undermined their competitiveness. Meanwhile, supported by comparatively resilient Iberian construction activity, Spanish domestic rebar held high and flat at 750 EUR/tonne DDP (~845 USD/tonne); however, domestic intake is insufficient to absorb mill capacity, pushing producers to seek export opportunities. Furthermore, for shipments to the UK, market participants remain unable to accurately price CBAM impacts into contracts ahead of verified baseline data, while fresh concerns over quota exhaustion are resurfacing following temporary government relief measures.