[Platinum & Palladium Price Review and Forecast]
This week (September 25-September 30), platinum and palladium prices consolidated ahead of the holiday, plunged on Monday amid panic, fell further on Tuesday, and rebounded from oversold levels on Wednesday, with both metals closing lower for the week.
At the start of the week, the market awaited inflation data and Fed policy signals, with overall futures fluctuations limited.
Mid-week, Trump publicly rejected the Iran proposal and hinted that actions against Iran could resume after the November midterm elections; Iran responded that it "will not compromise on established conditions." Stimulated by the negotiation deadlock, international oil prices opened higher with a gap, and the transmission chain of "oil prices up - sticky inflation - continued rate hikes" regained dominance. Combined with the US dollar index rising above 101 and the 10-year Treasury yield climbing toward 5.2%, platinum and palladium fell sharply in a panic.
Late in the week, New York Fed President Williams stated that "action was already taken in September and there is no need to rush," and market bets on a 25bp rate hike at the October FOMC meeting pulled back from above 70% to around 50%. Meanwhile, the US planned to release 40 million barrels of strategic petroleum reserves through "swaps," and shipments through the Strait of Hormuz gradually resumed, leading to a sharp pullback in international oil prices and a gradual stabilization in the decline of precious metals. Driven by cooling rate hike expectations and an overall rebound in the precious metals sector, platinum and palladium rebounded modestly from oversold levels.
The most-traded platinum futures contract on GFEX (PT2612) hit a weekly high of 428.15 yuan/g and a low of 408.90 yuan/g, closing at 420.20 yuan/g on September 30, with a weekly trading range of about 4.71%. The most-traded palladium futures contract (PD2612) hit a weekly high of 297.60 yuan/g and a low of 283.80 yuan/g, closing at 292.20 yuan/g on September 30, with a weekly trading range of about 4.86%.
In the spot market, after platinum and palladium fell for two consecutive days on Monday and Tuesday to weekly lows, some downstream buyers with stocking demand showed renewed interest in purchasing at low prices and actively inquired. However, with the holiday approaching, overall market trading sentiment was sluggish, and some traders showed low willingness to sell, choosing to hold prices firm. The spread between market offers widened slightly, with end-users mainly purchasing small orders for immediate needs, while futures and spot traders preferred to take delivery through October contract futures. During the week, mainstream platinum quotations were concentrated at a discount of 1.5 yuan/g to parity against GFEX PT2612, and mainstream palladium quotations were concentrated at a discount of 1.5 yuan/g to parity against GFEX PD2612.
Looking ahead, the 10-year Treasury yield has broken above 5.25%, the 30-year yield hit a 24-year high intraday, the US dollar index continued to set new highs since July, and the probability of an October rate hike once surged above 70%. The pressure from the interest rate side is unlikely to fade in the short term. With the situation in the Strait of Hormuz remaining volatile, high oil prices are reinforcing the rate hike logic, creating a negative feedback loop for precious metals and limiting upside. However, Williams' remarks eased anxiety over an October rate hike, and the market has digested rate hike expectations relatively quickly, with sentiment that the worst is over still present. Signs of decoupling between precious metals and interest rates, as well as ETF accumulation, are also providing a buffer. Going forward, key focus should be on the US August PCE data on the evening of September 30, non-farm payrolls on October 2, progress in the next round of indirect US-Iran talks, and Fed officials' remarks ahead of the October FOMC meeting. Platinum and palladium are expected to maintain a fluctuating trend in the short term.
[Platinum & Palladium Weekly Data Commentary]
COMEX platinum and palladium inventories continued to diverge this week. Platinum inventories extended their destocking trend, with registered inventories at approximately 179,000 oz as of September 25, down about 6.4% from 30 days ago, at an extremely low level in the 3rd percentile historically and a 9-month low, further narrowing the deliverable buffer. Total inventories were approximately 390,000 oz, with the registered share falling to about 47%. Palladium inventories remained high, with registered inventories at approximately 196,800 oz and a registered share of about 78%. Total inventories were approximately 250,000 oz, with US warehouse buffer inventories still near a one-year high, leaving the ample supply pattern unchanged.
On the import side, according to customs data, August 2026 imports of unwrought platinum and platinum powder were approximately 8.11 mt, down 2.87% MoM and up 11.55% YoY. August 2026 imports of unwrought palladium and palladium powder were approximately 3.35 mt, up 12.04% MoM and up 73.58% YoY. Overall, the import centers for platinum and palladium in 2026 are significantly higher than the same periods in 2023-2025, and domestic platinum and palladium supply remains relatively ample. Combined with export restriction policies, the domestic surplus is difficult to digest through exports.
On lease rates, London platinum and palladium lease rates remained at low levels this week. The one-month platinum lease rate stayed below 2%, while the one-month palladium lease rate hovered around 1%, indicating ample liquidity in the spot market, weak borrowing demand, and an unchanged overall pattern of loose supply.
[Platinum Group Compounds]
This week, chloroplatinic acid and palladium chloride prices continued to pull back overall, both hitting stage lows mid-week, but saw a modest stabilization and rebound on the last trading day before the holiday. Prices fell first and then stabilized during the week, with both closing at September lows. Chloroplatinic acid touched 169 yuan/g on September 29, the lowest point of the month, and rebounded modestly to 169.5 yuan/g on September 30. Palladium chloride fell to 185.5 yuan/g on September 29 (the monthly low) and recovered to 186.5 yuan/g on September 30. The two followed a consistent trajectory during the week: weakening in tandem with platinum and palladium futures at the start of the week, then stabilizing and rebounding on the final trading day.
In the spot market, the stocking effect from stabilizing raw material prices over the past two weeks has been transmitted downstream, and combined with the September-October peak season effect, compound shipments have accelerated. With maintenance at major domestic refining, PX, and PDH chemical facilities concluding, concentrated production resumptions from late August to September have driven stronger demand for platinum group compounds.
![Platinum Edges Up in Early Trading; Market Activity Sluggish on Last Trading Day Before Holiday [SMM Daily Review]](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/yhuhG20251217171735.jpg)
