[SMM Analysis] Overseas Primary Aluminum Market Quiet as Market Awaits Q4 MJP Settlement

Published: Sep 30, 2026 18:18 (GMT+8)

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The overseas primary aluminum market was largely muted this week, with limited trading activity across major markets. In South Korea, buying was confined to small-scale restocking and prices moved little; in Thailand, demand remained weak and some sellers trimmed offers under shipment pressure; while market attention centered on Q4 MJP quarterly pricing negotiations, with Rio Tinto's latest offer further lowered and expectations that the final settlement could still have room to move lower.

South Korea: Quiet Market, Buying Limited to Small Restocking

Trading in the South Korean market was very subdued this week, with buying demand confined to small-scale restocking and no concentrated purchasing seen. Sellers showed generally tepid offering enthusiasm, and overall offer levels moved little. The market remained in a wait-and-see mode with no clear directional cues.

Thailand: Weak Demand, Some Sellers Cut Offers

Demand in the Thai market remained very weak, with downstream buying interest persistently subdued and offers relatively scarce. Notably, some sellers facing shipment pressure have trimmed their offers to move material, nudging the overall price center slightly lower.

Japan: Q4 MJP Offer Further Lowered, Market Awaits Settlement

Market attention in Japan this week focused on the progress of Q4 MJP (Metal Japan Premium) negotiations. Rio Tinto (RTA) further lowered its quarterly offer, cutting it from the previous USD 310/mt level to USD 280/mt, with the offer valid until September 28. So far, however, no further changes have emerged, and buyers and sellers remain locked in negotiations.

The market widely expects the final Q4 MJP settlement to come in below USD 280/mt. Overall sentiment is cautious, with all parties awaiting the final Q4 MJP settlement to provide directional reference for subsequent pricing.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM's internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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