Ex-China Aluminum Market Runs Steadily as Market Awaits Q4 MJP Settlement [SMM Analysis]

Published: Sep 30, 2026 18:14 (GMT+8)

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This week, the overseas aluminum market was generally mediocre, with limited trading activity across major markets. In South Korea, purchases were mainly small-scale restocking, with little change in prices. In Thailand, demand remained weak, and some sellers slightly lowered their offers due to shipment pressure. The market focused on Q4 MJP quarterly pricing, with Rio Tinto's latest offer further reduced, and market expectations suggested there is still room for the final settlement price to move lower.

South Korea: Mediocre market, transactions mainly small-scale restocking

This week, trading in the South Korean market was very subdued, with purchasing demand limited to small-scale restocking and no concentrated procurement seen. Sellers showed moderate willingness to offer, with overall offer prices little changed. The market remained in a stable, wait-and-see state, lacking directional guidance.

Southeast Asia: Weak demand, some sellers lowered offers

Demand in the Southeast Asian market remained very weak, with downstream purchase willingness persistently low and relatively few offers in the market. Notably, due to shipment pressure on some sellers, offer prices were lowered to facilitate transactions, and the overall price center edged slightly lower.

Japan: Q4 MJP offers further reduced, market awaits final settlement

This week, the Japanese market's focus was on the progress of Q4 MJP negotiations. Rio Tinto (RTA) further reduced its offer price for this quarter, from the previous level of $310/mt to $280/mt, with the offer valid until September 28. However, as of now, no further changes have emerged in the market, and buyers and sellers remain in a standoff.

The market generally expects the final Q4 MJP settlement price to be below $280/mt, with overall market sentiment cautious. All parties are waiting for the final Q4 MJP settlement to provide directional reference for subsequent pricing.

[Data source statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, and are for reference only, not constituting decision-making advice.]

Data source: SMM

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM's internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

Images in this article contain AI-translated captions for reference only.

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