[SMM Analysis]LFP alone carries growth banner; ternary share of power battery cells accelerates pullback in September

In September 2026, China's total power battery cell production rose 1.4% MoM, a marked slowdown from the previous month's 11.6% MoM growth. The two major technology routes, ternary and LFP, diverged significantly, showing pronounced structural characteristics.

By system, LFP power battery cell production rose 6.2% MoM, extending its recent strong performance; ternary power battery cell production fell 15% MoM, a significant decline. The rise of one and the fall of the other further widened LFP's share advantage in the power battery cell supply structure.

LFP: End-use peak season plus second-generation blade battery ramp-up provide ample growth momentum

The growth in LFP power battery cell production was driven mainly by two factors. First, during the traditional September-October peak season, sales of low and mid-end NEV models priced at 100,000 yuan and below performed relatively well. Models in this price segment are overwhelmingly equipped with LFP batteries, directly boosting upstream battery cell production schedules. Second, the second-generation blade battery has continued to ramp up since its volume release, with production of corresponding car models steadily rising, making it an important source of incremental growth in LFP battery cell production.

Ternary: Mediocre sales of high-end extended-range models drag down battery cell production

The decline in ternary power battery cell production stemmed primarily from the overall mediocre sales of high-end extended-range models using ternary batteries. Since September, end-user orders for some mid-to-high-end NEV brands have weakened, and the destocking pace of extended-range and mid-to-large models primarily equipped with ternary batteries has slowed, directly transmitting to the battery cell segment and causing related producers to scale back production plans.

October outlook: Production schedule expected to rise 6.6% MoM, with LFP continuing to push volume

Looking ahead to October, power battery cell production is expected to rise 6.6% MoM. It should be noted that in September, some battery cell manufacturers were affected by tight supply of raw materials such as copper foil, leading to downward adjustments in overall production schedules and exerting some pressure on actual monthly output. As raw material supply tightness eases, October production schedules are expected to recover. LFP battery cells, as the current mainstay route in the power battery market, will continue to push volume with support from end-use demand, and their share is expected to rise further. For ternary battery cells, the marginal changes in end-use sales of high-end extended-range models will need to be monitored.