[China Iron Ore Brief] Iron ore prices in the Liaodong region are likely to consolidate

[India Export] SMM assessed India-origin HRC at 660USD/tonne FOB India for Europe and 730USD/tonne CFR Northern Europe, following reports of deals at 720–730USD/tonne CFR. Offers later moved up to 740–750USD/tonne CFR, but no fresh business was confirmed at the higher levels. For Vietnam, SMM’s India-origin HRC price stood at 567.5USD/tonne CFR. Buyers were heard around 540USD/tonne FOB India against seller indications near 550USD/tonne FOB, but with no firm offers from Indian mills, the market remained quiet. SMM’s billet price stood at 467.5USD/tonne FOB India, while overseas billet and slab sentiment remained soft and no fresh Indian billet deal was reported. Chinese HRC was heard close to domestic parity after safeguard duty was included. Market participants said prevailing offers of 550–555USD/tonne CFR India were commercially viable only for importers eligible under the Advance Authorisation Scheme. Mumbai HRC was heard at around 656USD/tonne (63,000INR/tonne) EXW, which participants considered a realistic mill level, with a further increase of around 1,000INR/tonne expected in the coming days. Firm domestic prices gave mills little reason to lower export offers, although the higher European levels had yet to be supported by fresh deals.

The European Commission has launched a targeted consultation to assess the functioning and immediate market impact of the European Union's new steel import quota regime following the first quarter of its implementation. The consultation opened on September 28 and covers Regulation (EU) 2026/1384, which introduced a tariff-rate quota system aimed at protecting the EU steel market from the trade-related effects of global overcapacity. The Commission is seeking feedback from steel producers, downstream users, business associations, third-country governments, exporters and other affected stakeholders. The consultation will remain open until October 11, 2026 at 23:59 CEST. Under the new regime, the EU caps duty-free steel imports at 18.3 million tonnes per year. Country-specific quotas are allocated to trading partners that accounted for at least 5% of EU imports of a particular steel product during the 2022-2024 reference period, while other volumes can enter through applicable residual quotas. Imports exceeding the relevant quota are subject to a 50% out-of-quota duty. The consultation is particularly relevant for steel exporters including India because third-country governments and exporters are explicitly invited to provide evidence on how the new system is operating. Stakeholders can also submit separate responses for different steel product categories covered by the regulation. The exercise is intended to establish an ongoing monitoring mechanism and assess the immediate effects of the quota system on affected industries. It does not itself change existing quota volumes, country allocations or tariff rates. Any potential changes would depend on subsequent action by the European Commission following its assessment of stakeholder submissions. The consultation is separate from the Commission's first product-scope review under the same steel regulation, which closes on September 30 and is examining whether additional steel products should be brought within the trade measure.

[India Domestic] India's domestic steel and scrap market remained largely stable with prices showing limited movement across key markets amid soft demand on Wednesday. Semi-finished steel and rebar prices were mostly unchanged as sales stayed weak. Melting scrap down 3 USD/tonne (300 INR/tonne) to 396 USD/tonne (38,000 INR/tonne) ex-yard Alang. Mandi ingot up 1 USD/tonne (100 INR/tonne) to 504 USD/tonne (48,300 INR/tonne) EXW Mandi from Tuesday’s morning but remained flat from last index. Rebar prices flat 540 USD/tonne (51,800 INR/tonne) EXW Raipur. Billet edged down 2 USD/tonne (200 INR/tonne) to 471 USD/tonne (45,200 INR/tonne) EXW Raipur. Durgapur Billet flat at 473 USD/tonne (45,300 INR/tonne) delivered Durgapur. Sponge iron PDRI unchanged at 324 USD/tonne (31,100 INR/tonne) EXW Bellary. Raipur PDRI also flat at 308 USD/tonne (29,500 INR/tonne) EXW Raipur. Market participants views on the near-term price outlook with some buyers expecting prices to correct further.