SMM, September 30:
Domestic bauxite:
Bauxite prices edge up in some regions; domestic ore market overall stable
Recently, an alumina enterprise in Shanxi announced next month's listing prices for externally purchased bauxite, with delivered prices for specified-grade ore at 570 yuan/mt. Other domestic ore prices remained broadly stable with no notable fluctuations, and the market is expected to trade around current price levels in the near term. As of today, ex-warehouse transaction prices at crushing plants, excluding VAT, for bauxite with an Al/Si ratio of 5.0 and 60% alumina content in Shanxi were around 540-560 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt from the previous period. In Henan, ex-warehouse transaction prices at crushing plants, excluding VAT, for bauxite with an Al/Si ratio of 5.0 and 60% alumina content were around 500-540 yuan/mt. In Guiyang, ex-works prices including VAT for bauxite with an Al/Si ratio of 6.0 and 60% alumina content were 490-540 yuan/mt. In Guangxi, ex-warehouse transaction prices at crushing plants, excluding VAT, for bauxite with an Al/Si ratio of 6.0 and 53% alumina content were 320-335 yuan/mt. Overall, domestic ore prices are expected to remain largely stable in the near term, with attention needed on the recovery of mine supply in main producing areas and changes in downstream procurement.
Imported bauxite:
Ocean freight rates from Guinea to China stay high; October mainstream long-term contract offers surge; imported ore market remains in a tug-of-war
According to data from September 25, weekly port departures of bauxite from main ports in Guinea totaled 2.4436 million mt, down 1.8874 million mt from the previous week, a sharp drop in shipments. According to the SMM survey, in mid-September, as the Middle East situation intensified again and demand for shipping capacity from other cargoes rose, ocean freight rates from Guinea to China climbed to around $40-42/wmt, keeping shipment costs at mines consolidating at highs. In Australia, as of September 25, weekly port departures of bauxite from main ports totaled 886,100 mt, down 393,600 mt from the previous week, a slight decline in shipments. Attention is needed on the shipment pace of Australian mines and changes in port departures. As of September 25, China's bauxite port arrivals totaled 3.9761 million mt, down 1.057 million mt from the previous week. Continued attention is needed on the impact of high and fluctuating oil prices and ocean freight rates on the pace of future arrivals and landed costs.
In terms of prices, the first round of October long-term contract offers for Guinean bauxite rose sharply along with freight adjustments, currently at around $78/mt. Downstream alumina refineries have very low acceptance of this price, and the market tug-of-war is expected to persist for some time. Meanwhile, alumina refineries held about 93 days of bauxite inventories. Although this showed a downward trend, the high inventory level still exerted some top pressure on ore prices. For Guinean bauxite, although ocean freight rates from Guinea to China maintained an upward trend and mine costs continued to consolidate at highs, Guinea's shipments remained at a relatively high level from early to mid-September, only showing a downward trend in the last two weeks. However, with the domestic holiday and the negotiation period for October long-term contract prices, imported ore prices continued to be contested, and transactions remained weak. As of this Thursday, Guinean bauxite FOB offers were $35-45/mt, with the average price flat WoW; Guinean bauxite CIF prices were $70.5-73.5/mt, with the average price up $0.5/mt WoW; the SMM imported bauxite index price was $72.61/mt, up $0.2/mt WoW. Going forward, bauxite prices will still depend on individual mine costs, Guinea's traditional rainy season, and the impact of the Guinean government's bauxite export quota policy on overall shipments. SMM will continue to closely monitor bauxite market trends and transaction conditions.
Overall, domestic ore market prices maintained current levels; meanwhile, domestic alumina refinery inventories remained high (about 92 days), and alumina enterprises' tolerance for rising raw material prices was moderate; uncertainty over Guinea's quota policy and the traditional rainy season also provided some support to bauxite costs, but buyers' purchase willingness and the rebound in shipments created downward pressure on imported bauxite prices. In the short term, imported ore prices are expected to continue the bargaining pattern after pulling back slightly, with attention needed on the implementation of Guinea's quota policy and ocean freight rate trends.
![Spot premiums traded flat in a sluggish last trading day before the National Day holiday [SMM Aluminum Spot Midday Review]](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/XfCZS20251217171655.jpg)
