Futures:
Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,902.5/mt. The US dollar continued to strengthen, putting LME lead under pressure, and it maintained a subdued consolidation pattern throughout the day. In the morning, LME lead traded at $1,910/mt, then its center gradually shifted lower, falling to the lower edge of the previous platform. Intraday, it hit a low of $1,893/mt, refreshing a near two-week low. By nighttime, LME lead's decline slightly recovered, and it finally settled at $1,899.5/mt, down 0.26%.
Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2611 contract opened at 16,205 yuan/mt. Ahead of the National Day holiday, SHFE lead open interest further declined, and SHFE lead maintained a narrow consolidation, trading at 16,170-16,240 yuan/mt, finally settling at 16,235 yuan/mt, down 0.25%. Open interest was 65,834 lots, down 1,206 lots from the previous trading day.
On the macro front:
Chinese market: The People's Bank of China further adjusted and improved multiple monetary policy tools: it lowered the PSL interest rate by 0.25 percentage points to 1.5%, expanded PSL support areas to the "six networks" construction; increased the relending quota for technological innovation and technical transformation by 200 billion yuan to 1.4 trillion yuan, with the support ratio raised to 100%; and increased the relending quota for agriculture and small businesses by 500 billion yuan to 4.85 trillion yuan. The Ministry of Finance and two other departments implemented a policy of interest subsidies on residential home purchase loans.
Markets outside China: US JOLTS job openings fell to 7.079 million in August, the lowest in five months and the third consecutive month below expectations. The September consumer confidence index also fell to its lowest since 2014. The labor market continued to show rigid characteristics of low hiring, low layoffs, and low mobility. Fed "third-in-command" Williams said there may be one more rate hike later this year but there is no need to rush, and multiple officials reiterated their hawkish stance the same day. Market pricing for an October rate hike fell from around 70% to about 50%.
:
In the lead spot market yesterday, circulating cargoes in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai were limited. With the National Day holiday approaching, some traders had already gone on holiday and suspended quotations. Other traders mainly sold primary lead cargoes self-picked up from production site, and smelters actively sold National Day holiday cargoes. Mainstream production area quotations were at premiums of 0-50 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price ex-works, with some negotiable at discounts. For secondary lead, regional supply tightness persisted, smelter shipments decreased, and mainstream production area secondary refined lead quotations ranged from a discount of 100 yuan/mt to a premium of 75 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price ex-works. Downstream enterprises had completed pre-holiday stockpiling, inquiries were few, and spot market trading was sluggish.
Inventory: As of September 29, LME lead inventory was 357,550 mt, down 1,150 mt from the previous trading day; SHFE lead ingot warrant inventory totaled 42,607 mt, down 2,312 mt from the previous trading day.
Lead price forecast for today:
Recently, as the National Day holiday approaches in the Chinese market, upstream and downstream enterprises are waiting for the break, spot market trading has weakened, and futures funds have withdrawn, leading to a notable decline in market trading activity. Before the holiday, downstream stockpiling was concentrated, and lead ingot inventory remained low. However, expectations for supply-side growth after the holiday are rising, including production resumptions at smelters and the arrival of imported lead, putting greater pressure on lead prices than before the holiday. In addition, the significant supply gaps in lead concentrates and scrap remain the fundamental support for lead prices going forward.
Data source statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, and are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making advice.
![LME Lead Trading Center Shifts Down, Hits Two-Week Low Again [SMM Lead Morning Update]](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/yqTpQ20251217171721.jpeg)
![Market caution rises as long holiday approaches; SHFE lead 2611 contract consolidates [Lead Futures Brief Review]](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/PKFMX20251217171721.jpg)
