Crude oil pulled back, metals showed mixed changes, LME aluminum, LME nickel, and SHFE nickel led the declines, gold rebounded [Overnight Market]

SMM, September 30:

In the metals market:

Overnight, base metals on the domestic market showed mixed performance. SHFE copper rose 0.11%, SHFE aluminum fell 0.46%, and SHFE lead was flat at 16,235 yuan/mt. SHFE zinc fell 0.36%, and SHFE tin rose 0.36%. SHFE nickel fell 1.28%. In addition, the most-traded alumina futures contract rose 0.15%, while the most-traded cast aluminum contract fell 0.32%.

Overnight, ferrous metals mostly rose. Stainless steel fell 0.8%. Iron ore rose 0.64%, and rebar rose 0.32%. Hot-rolled coil rose 0.12%. For coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract fell 0.31%, while the most-traded coke contract rose 0.33%.

Overnight in the overseas metals market, LME base metals showed mixed performance. LME copper and LME tin edged up, with gains within 0.1%. LME aluminum fell 1.17%. LME lead fell 0.13%. LME zinc rose 0.29%. LME nickel fell 1.2%.

Overnight in the precious metals market: COMEX gold rose 1.12%; COMEX silver rose 0.21%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE gold contract rose 0.8%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract rose 0.35%.

As of 7:17 on September 30, overnight closing prices:

Macro front

Domestic news:

[Central government's first-ever "mortgage interest subsidy" launched before the holiday: applicable to first homes, under 120 m², and under 1.5 million yuan] The Ministry of Finance, the PBOC, and the National Financial Regulatory Administration jointly issued a notice on September 29, clarifying that starting October 1, 2026, a mortgage interest subsidy policy for residential home purchases will be implemented, with a tentative policy period of one year. This marks the first time the central government has subsidized interest on commercial personal housing loans. The notice specifies that subsidies will be provided to households meeting all of the following conditions: First, the loan must be a newly issued commercial personal housing loan for purchasing a first home, excluding refinancing of existing loans; second, the purchased home's floor area must not exceed 120 m²; third, the purchased home's price must not exceed 1.5 million yuan. According to the notice, the maximum loan amount eligible for the subsidy is 1 million yuan, with a subsidy of 1 percentage point annualized provided by the finance department, for a maximum subsidy period of five years. (Xinhua News Agency)

[PBOC takes action: "interest rate cut," increased financial support for the "Six Networks," and expanded "relending quota"] The PBOC further adjusted and improved multiple monetary policy tools: it lowered the PSL interest rate by 0.25 percentage points to 1.5%, expanded PSL support to the construction of the "Six Networks"; increased the relending quota for technological innovation and equipment upgrades by 200 billion yuan to 1.4 trillion yuan, raising the support ratio to 100%; and increased the relending quota for agriculture and small businesses by 500 billion yuan to 4.85 trillion yuan.

US dollar:

The overnight US dollar index rose 0.19% to 101.38.

According to data released on Tuesday, the US Conference Board consumer confidence index fell 6.7 points to 81.9 in September, the lowest level since 2014 and well below all forecasts by economists surveyed by Bloomberg. The deterioration in confidence was broad-based, affecting all age groups, income brackets, and regions. The survey was conducted from September 1 to September 23. Meanwhile, the sub-index reflecting current economic conditions plunged nearly 8 points to its lowest since 2021; the expectations index for the next six months also slipped to a more than one-year low. Inflation expectations heated up, with the proportion of respondents expecting interest rates to rise further climbing to the highest in more than four years. (Wall Street CN)

New York Fed President John Williams said the US Fed does not need to rush to act again after raising rates at the September meeting and can wait for more economic data to determine the next policy direction. Williams said that if the economy develops broadly in line with his expectations, further increases in the target range for the federal funds rate may be needed before year-end to bring inflation back to the 2% target in a more timely manner. But he stressed that this is only his personal forecast and the final decision will depend on future data. Williams said that with solid economic growth and a well-performing labour market, inflation pressures will remain the focus of monetary policy. He said the Fed must ensure that inflation does not remain persistently high due to shocks and avoid second-round inflation effects. He noted that inflation pressures this year have been affected by Trump's tariff policies and higher energy prices caused by the Middle East conflict, while artificial intelligence investment has also pushed up some price pressures. Williams expects US inflation to reach about 3.5% by the end of this year, then gradually pull back and return to the target level in 2028. Williams expects US economic growth of about 2.25% this year and an unemployment rate of about 4% next year. He said immigration factors, an ageing population, and limited productivity growth are constraining the economy's long-term growth potential. (Jin10 Data APP)

According to CME "FedWatch": the probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged at 3.75%-4.00% at the October meeting is 49.6%, and the probability of a 25 basis point hike is 50.4%. The probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged at 3.75%-4.00% through December is 8.5%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point hike is 49.8%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point hike is 41.8%. Earlier, the market had priced in a 73% probability that the US Fed would raise rates again at its October 27–28 policy meeting. (Futures Daily)

Meanwhile, the US Treasury market continued to see heavy selling, with the 30-year yield rising for a sixth straight trading day to 5.595%, its highest since 2002. The latest climb in yields was driven mainly by elevated energy prices intensifying inflation pressure and by increased corporate debt issuance weighing on the market. The move marked another key period in a months-long selloff across the $32 trillion US Treasury market. Global government bond markets have been broadly under pressure recently. With the Middle East conflict pushing oil prices higher, investors have begun betting that major central banks, including the US Fed, may tighten further. In the US, a surge in business activity and concerns over government debt levels have added fuel to the Treasury selloff, whose scale is comparable to the market crash triggered when Trump announced tariff policies in April 2025. Citi strategists believe the Treasury market is undergoing a correction, while Yardeni Research said the unwinding of yen carry trades, a strategy of borrowing yen to invest in higher-yielding assets, is also amplifying the selloff. (Jin10 Data APP)

On the data front:

Today will bring China's official manufacturing PMI for September, Australia's August unadjusted CPI y/y, China's September RatingDog manufacturing PMI, China's September RatingDog services PMI, the UK's final Q2 GDP y/y, the UK's Q2 current account, France's preliminary September CPI m/m, Germany's September seasonally adjusted unemployment change, Germany's September seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, Switzerland's September ZEW investor sentiment index, Germany's preliminary September CPI m/m, US September ADP employment change, US August core PCE price index y/y, US August personal spending m/m, US final Q2 real GDP annualized q/q, US final Q2 real personal consumption expenditures q/q, US final Q2 core PCE price index annualized q/q, US August core PCE price index m/m, and US September Chicago PMI.

Also in focus: OpenAI CEO Altman's CNBC interview; remarks by Fed Governor Barr; remarks by 2027 FOMC voter and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee; a keynote speech by OpenAI CEO Altman at the OpenAI Developer Conference; remarks by 2028 FOMC voter and St. Louis Fed President Musalem at the London School of Economics; a keynote speech by FOMC permanent voter and New York Fed President Williams at the University at Buffalo; and remarks by Fed Governor Waller.

It is worth noting that on September 30, China's SGE, SHFE, ZCE, and DCE had no night session due to the eve of the National Day holiday; on October 1, Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing was closed for one day due to National Day, with both northbound and southbound trading suspended; China's Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges, Beijing Stock Exchange, and domestic futures exchanges were closed from October 1 (Thursday) to October 7 (Wednesday) due to National Day; on October 2, October 5, October 6, and October 7, Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing operated normally, with northbound and southbound trading suspended.

On the crude oil front:

Overnight, both oil futures fell, with WTI down 3.95% and Brent down 2.17%. The decline was driven by four nearly simultaneous positive signals: Qatar announced that Iran-US negotiations were still progressing, Saudi Arabia's key pipeline resumed oil transportation, the IEA indicated readiness to release reserves, and the Trump administration was reportedly considering a new plan to promote détente with Russia. (Wall Street CN)