October PV glass prices continue to push upward, while demand-side constraints emerge [SMM Analysis]

SMM, September 29:

I. Prices rise for a second consecutive month

As industry production cuts were gradually implemented, prices established an inflection point starting in August, completing two rounds of concentrated upward adjustments during the month and continuing to rise mildly into September. Since August, PV glass prices have ended a half-year-long grind lower and entered a trajectory of consecutive increases: the average price of 3.2mm double-layer coated glass rose from 16.6 yuan/m² on August 3 to 17.3 yuan/m² on September 29, a cumulative increase of 0.7 yuan/m² (+4.2%); the average price of 2.0mm double-layer coated glass rose from 10.15 yuan/m² to 11.25 yuan/m² over the same period, a cumulative increase of 1.1 yuan/m² (+10.8%).

II. Inventories decline for a fourth consecutive month, but the pace of decline has recently narrowed

The foundation for the price recovery came from sustained inventory destocking driven by supply contraction.

PV glass days of inventories tracked by SMM entered a downward trajectory after hitting a year-to-date high in mid-May 2026, falling to around 38 days in the week ending September 24, a destocking of 7.9 days from the high, a decline of about 17.2%, and has remained on a downward path for roughly four and a half consecutive months.

However, it should be noted that, based on SMM's statistical scope, the pace of decline in China's glass inventories began to narrow starting in September. Although production cuts on the supply side accelerated somewhat, overall downstream module production schedules still fell short of expectations. Moreover, with the PV industry currently in overall losses, the module segment is under the greatest pressure, becoming more cautious in material purchases and showing extremely strong resistance to high-priced cargoes. Some glass enterprises, while holding prices firm, saw their order-taking situation deteriorate, and some glass enterprises even saw their days of inventories rebound in mid-September. This also means that actual demand has not yet improved, and the transmission of price increases driven by supply-side production cuts is beginning to face obstacles.

III. The core drivers of the price increases and the subsequent price trend

First, reviewing the September price increases, the main reason was that from late August to early September, five kilns in China successively entered production cuts. Given the long cycle and high cost of resuming glass production, the supply side would find it difficult to replenish in the short term. The sentiment support from supply-side reductions and the decline in days of inventories combined to drive prices higher, and module enterprises also appropriately accepted the price increases brought about by fundamentals.

Looking ahead to October, SMM believes PV glass prices still have the foundation to continue rising, but the pace of increase is expected to be milder than in August-September. The core judgment is that supply-side rigidity remains in place, and overall glass is still in a destocking phase, providing marginal support for prices. Therefore, we judge that prices will still rise in October, but it should be noted that the projected October price increase is not a rise across the entire range, but rather more of an upward shift in the center and a narrowing of the range. The low-priced orders previously offered by glass enterprises to compete for shipments will gradually disappear, and preferential orders below 10 yuan/m² are expected to be hard to come by going forward. However, the current market high of 10.5 yuan/m² will also be difficult to break through again, as cost pressure on modules remains the core factor capping the upside for glass prices.